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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-08-15 04:36:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 150236 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 57.4W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 57.4W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 56.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.2N 59.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.4N 61.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.7N 63.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.2N 65.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.7N 67.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 26.4N 67.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 29.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 33.0N 64.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 57.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Kyle Graphics
2020-08-15 04:35:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 02:35:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 02:35:11 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-08-15 04:33:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150233 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 There has not been much change with Kyle during the past several hours. The tropical storm continues to feel the influence of strong westerly vertical wind shear, with the low-level center exposed to the west of the main area of deep convection. Despite the system's poor appearance, a ship recently reported winds around 40 kt about 70 n mi southeast of the center. Based on that data and the satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is nudged up to 40 kt. The tropical storm is moving fairly quickly toward the east-northeast away from the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 065/14 kt. A slightly faster east-northeastward to eastward motion is expected during the next few days as the storm becomes more embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The track models are in relatively good agreement, and this forecast lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope. The ongoing westerly shear is only expected to get stronger with time, therefore, significant intensification is not expected. However, the global models suggest that a little strengthening is likely during the next day or two while Kyle moves along the northern wall of the Gulf Stream current and interacts with an upper-level trough. Kyle is forecast to transition to an extratropical cyclone in about 48 hours when it is expected to be north of the Gulf Stream over cool waters and in a drier environment. The extratropical system should slowly decay until it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low in a little more than 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 38.3N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 39.3N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 40.7N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 42.0N 58.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 43.1N 54.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 17/1200Z 43.6N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/0000Z 43.5N 43.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kyle (AT2/AL122020)
2020-08-15 04:33:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM KYLE MOVING AWAY FROM THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 the center of Kyle was located near 38.3, -70.0 with movement ENE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kyle Public Advisory Number 2
2020-08-15 04:33:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 150233 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kyle Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM KYLE MOVING AWAY FROM THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.3N 70.0W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM ESE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kyle was located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 70.0 West. Kyle is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slightly faster east-northeastward or eastward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Kyle is forecast to become post-tropical by Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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