je.st
news
Tag: tropical storm
Tropical Storm Josephine Graphics
2020-08-14 04:36:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2020 02:36:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2020 02:36:39 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-08-14 04:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 140235 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 Enhanced infrared GOES 16 imagery and a recent ASCAT-A overpass indicated that the center of circulation is still located to the south of a rather shapeless deep convective mass. Recent images show a small burst developing just to the west of the center, but the associated cloud tops are already warming. Based on the overall cloud pattern, light southerly shear and a dry, relatively stable surrounding environment continue to hamper significant development. There were no changes to the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is once again held at a possibly generous 40 kt. Josephine's relatively small window of opportunity for further strengthening is within the next 18 to 24 hours. The forecast still shows a peak intensity of 50 kt at the time and is above all of the skilled guidance. After which, strong southwesterly shear produced by a northeast to southwest oriented deep-layer mid-Atlantic trough is expected to induce gradual weakening. This inhibiting upper wind pattern is forecast to affect the cyclone through day 5. The NHC forecast through 60 hours is based on the better performing IVCN consensus which consists of the Decay SHIPS, LGEM and the hurricane models. Beyond mid-period, the forecast is basically a blend of the IVCN and the global models which now shows Josephine degenerating into a remnant low at day 5. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/15 kt within the southwestern periphery of a subtropical high situated to the northeast of Josephine. Weakening of the western portion of the ridge should cause Josephine to turn northwestward in 3 days, followed by a turn generally northward at day 4 in response to a major shortwave trough approaching the east coast of the U.S. and the western Atlantic. The official forecast is a little faster than the previous one through 5 days and is once again close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus model. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However, interests in the area should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 14.8N 52.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 15.8N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.3N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 18.8N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 20.0N 62.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 21.3N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 22.8N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 26.0N 67.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 29.5N 66.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Josephine (AT1/AL112020)
2020-08-14 04:34:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSEPHINE HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 13 the center of Josephine was located near 14.8, -52.2 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm Josephine Public Advisory Number 10
2020-08-14 04:34:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 140234 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 ...JOSEPHINE HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 52.2W ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 52.2 West. Josephine is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week. On the forecast track the center of Josephine is expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected through Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Josephine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-08-14 04:34:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 140234 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SABA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Sites : [921] [922] [923] [924] [925] [926] [927] [928] [929] [930] [931] [932] [933] [934] [935] [936] [937] [938] [939] [940] next »