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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-08-14 10:36:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 140836 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 As has been the case for the last couple of days, the center of the tropical storm is displaced to the south of the main area of deep convection. Some new convective cells have been forming nearer to the estimated center, but the overall cloud pattern is quite ragged-looking at this time. ASCAT data from a few hours ago indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt, which is consistent with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. NOAA data buoy 41040 confirmed that the system still has a closed circulation since it reported light westerly winds while the center of Josephine passed to its north. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm later today. Josephine is beginning to move into an environment of increasing vertical shear associated with a large upper-tropospheric trough over the western Atlantic. Therefore, the window of opportunity for strengthening is closing soon. The official intensity forecast allows for some intensification during the next 24 hours before the upper-level winds become prohibitively strong. However, the NHC forecast is now above most of the model intensity guidance through 72 hours. The storm continues its west-northwestward motion and is moving at about 300/15 kt. Josephine should continue this general motion as it approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge in 48 hours or so. Then, the cyclone should turn northward and move through the weakness in 3-4 days. Late in the forecast period, Josephine or its remnants are expected to turn north-northeastward while it approaches the higher-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is essentially the same as the previous one, and also lies close to the latest corrected multi-model consensus. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However, interests in the area should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.3N 53.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 16.5N 55.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 18.0N 58.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 19.1N 60.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 20.3N 62.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 21.6N 65.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 23.1N 66.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 26.0N 67.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 30.0N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Josephine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-08-14 10:36:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 140836 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0900 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Josephine (AT1/AL112020)
2020-08-14 10:36:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSEPHINE CONTINUES ON ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Aug 14 the center of Josephine was located near 15.3, -53.3 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Josephine Public Advisory Number 11
2020-08-14 10:36:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 140836 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 ...JOSEPHINE CONTINUES ON ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 53.3W ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 53.3 West. Josephine is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine is expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-08-14 10:35:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 140835 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0900 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 53.3W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 53.3W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 52.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.5N 55.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.0N 58.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.1N 60.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.3N 62.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 21.6N 65.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.1N 66.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 26.0N 67.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 30.0N 66.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 53.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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