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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-08-14 04:33:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 140233 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 52.2W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 52.2W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 51.4W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.8N 54.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.3N 56.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.8N 59.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.0N 62.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.3N 64.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.8N 66.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 26.0N 67.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 29.5N 66.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 52.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Josephine Graphics
2020-08-13 22:38:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Aug 2020 20:38:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Aug 2020 21:24:27 GMT
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-08-13 22:37:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 132037 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 PM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 There has been little change in the organization of Josephine since the last advisory. The low-level center is located near the southern edge of the main convective mass, and there is some weak outer banding in the northern semicircle. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus. Some arc clouds west of the main convective mass suggest that dry air is entraining into the system. However, where this dry air is coming from is not readily apparent in satellite imagery or model analyses. The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 295/14 kt. Josephine should continue this motion for the next 3-4 days as it moves toward a weakness in the western portion of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. The global models forecast the western end of the ridge to weaken even more by the end of the forecast period, which should cause the cyclone, or what is left of it by that time, to turn northwestward. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track lies a little to the right of the previous track trough 48 h and close to the previous track thereafter. On the forecast track, Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands to prevent major impacts. However, interests in the area should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has gone by. Josephine has about 36 h to strengthen before it encounters significant southwesterly shear. The new intensity forecast is unchanged in showing the storm strengthening to a peak intensity of 50 kt in 24-36 h. After that, some minor tweaks were made to the intensity during the expected shear-induced weakening. The new forecast intensity follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 14.5N 50.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 15.5N 52.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.9N 55.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 18.3N 57.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 19.6N 60.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 20.9N 62.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 22.0N 64.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 25.0N 67.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 28.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Josephine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-08-13 22:36:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 132036 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 2100 UTC THU AUG 13 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Josephine (AT1/AL112020)
2020-08-13 22:35:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSEPHINE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 13 the center of Josephine was located near 14.5, -50.6 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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