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Tropical Storm Kyle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-08-15 04:33:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 150233 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KYLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HALIFAX NS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-08-15 04:32:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 150232 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 70.0W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 70.0W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 71.0W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 39.3N 66.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 40.7N 62.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 42.0N 58.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 43.1N 54.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 43.6N 48.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 43.5N 43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.3N 70.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Kyle Graphics
2020-08-14 22:56:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2020 20:56:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2020 20:56:41 GMT
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Tropical Storm Josephine Graphics
2020-08-14 22:53:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2020 20:53:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2020 20:53:39 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-08-14 22:41:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 142041 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020 Earlier this afternoon, one-minute visible satellite imagery clearly showed that an area of low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. had developed a well defined center. Banding convection wraps from the northeast to the southeast quadrant of the cyclone, and a combination of surface obs, ship reports, and buoy data all indicate that the system is not frontal. Although its organization is limited by strong southwesterly upper-level winds, the convection appears to be sufficiently well organized to classify the system as a tropical cyclone. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the maximum winds were between 30 and 35 kt, so the initial intensity is set at 35 kt, assuming some slight undersampling may have occurred. Kyle is the earliest 11th named storm on record for the Atlantic basin. The previous record was Katrina, which became a tropical storm on August 24, 2005. Kyle is moving quickly east-northeastward along the northern portion of the Gulf Stream, and its future as a tropical cyclone is likely tied to how long it remains over those warm waters. A mid-latitude trough will continue to steer the system generally east-northeastward for the next few days, with some increase in forward speed. This will cause the storm to move quickly northeastward away from the U.S. coast and well south of the Canadian Maritimes. As long as the tropical cyclone remains over warm waters, some strengthening is possible, and this is reflected in all of the intensity guidance. That said, strong upper-level winds will likely keep the system sufficiently sheared to prevent significant tropical strengthening. Extratropical transition is forecast to begin within 48 h, and should be complete by 60 h. Sometime around or just after 72 h, the low is forecast to either merge with or be absorbed by a larger extratropical low pressure system over the North Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is based on the multi-model consensus, with a little extra weight given to the global models for the extratropical phase. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 37.7N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 38.7N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 40.0N 64.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 41.4N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 42.4N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 43.1N 51.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 17/1800Z 43.1N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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