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Tropical Storm Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-08-09 16:36:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 091436 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 1 32(33) 16(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 20N 110W 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 52(53) 39(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 9( 9) 60(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 2( 2) 34(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 34(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 67(86) 4(90) X(90) X(90) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 53(55) 9(64) X(64) X(64) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 30(30) 7(37) X(37) X(37) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 52(55) 6(61) X(61) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 4(25) X(25) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 5(23) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-08-09 16:36:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 091436 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 105.4W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 105.4W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 104.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.3N 107.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.4N 109.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.3N 112.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.0N 115.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.7N 117.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.2N 120.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 21.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 105.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Elida Graphics
2020-08-09 10:50:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Aug 2020 08:50:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Aug 2020 09:24:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-08-09 10:49:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 090849 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 Deep convection associated with the cyclone has increased during the past several hours, particularly in a band in the southeast quadrant. Late-arriving ASCAT data valid around 0330 UTC revealed that the cyclone's low-level wind structure was still somewhat elongated in a SSW-NNE orientation. That said, the ASCAT data also showed a few believable 30-35 kt vectors in the northeast quadrant of the cyclone. That supports an intensity of 35 kt, making Elida the 5th tropical storm of the 2020 eastern North Pacific season. Even with the assistance of the ASCAT pass, it has been difficult to track the center of the tropical storm this morning. The center of Elida appears to have jumped somewhat northward since last night, and further reformations of the center will be possible until the system consolidates some more. The northward adjustment in the position resulted in a slight adjustment to the track forecast in that direction, but overall the tropical storm is still forecast to move generally west-northwestward for the next several days, steered by a mid-level ridge extending over northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. A westward turn is likely near the end of the forecast period as Elida weakens and low-level tradewinds become the dominant steering mechanism. Overall the models are in excellent agreement and confidence in the track forecast is fairly high. All of the statistical and regional hurricane intensity models forecast Elida to strengthen and become a hurricane within 48 h. Since the cyclone does not appear to have a tight inner-core yet, only modest strengthening is forecast for the first 12 h, followed by a faster rate after that. The extent of strengthening is still highly uncertain, and the guidance ranges from a minimal to major hurricane. The new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and the multi-model consensus. Elida is forecast to weaken later this week after it reaches cooler waters to the north. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 15.8N 104.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 16.8N 106.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 17.9N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 18.8N 111.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 19.7N 113.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 20.6N 116.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 21.2N 119.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 21.9N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 21.5N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-08-09 10:40:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 390 FOPZ14 KNHC 090840 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 21(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 71(73) 8(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 39(39) 8(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 14(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 11(46) 1(47) X(47) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 38(81) X(81) X(81) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 36(49) X(49) X(49) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) X(23) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 13(49) X(49) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) X(18) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 7(21) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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