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Tropical Storm Elida Graphics
2020-08-09 22:43:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Aug 2020 20:43:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Aug 2020 21:24:53 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-09 22:41:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 092040 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020 Elida appears to be on a strengthening trend. Visible satellite images indicate that the storm's banding features are becoming more tightly wrapped and symmetric around the center. An ASCAT pass from around 16Z showed maximum winds near 40 kt, but since the storm continues to organize, the initial intensity is set a little higher at 45 kt. This intensity estimate is in agreement with the 18Z Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, but slightly below the latest SATCON and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Elida is likely on its way to becoming a hurricane as the environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for strengthening during the next 36 to 48 hours. Now that the storm appears to have a well-defined inner core and outer bands, rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours with some additional intensification expected until it reaches cooler waters in a couple of days. After 48 hours, cooler waters and drier air should cause a gradual decay of the system, and Elida is expected to steadily weaken and become a remnant low by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the guidance, near HCCA, in the short term, but ends near the middle of the guidance envelope at the longer range times. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt. The track forecast appears fairly straightforward. A mid-level ridge that stretches across northern Mexico and over a portion of the east Pacific should cause Elida to move generally west-northwestward at about the same forward speed during the next few days. After that time, a slower westward or west-southwestward motion is expected as the weakening cyclone is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The models are in fairly good agreement, and this forecast lies near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 17.0N 106.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 17.9N 108.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 18.9N 111.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 19.6N 113.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 20.3N 116.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 21.0N 118.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 21.6N 120.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 21.9N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 21.3N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-08-09 22:38:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 092037 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 1 42(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) 20N 110W 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 89(90) 4(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 66(66) 9(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 37(37) 11(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 38(40) 15(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 52(54) 38(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 17(17) 52(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 37(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 49(55) 2(57) X(57) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 1(21) X(21) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 4(17) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Elida (EP4/EP092020)
2020-08-09 22:37:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ELIDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 the center of Elida was located near 17.0, -106.4 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Elida Public Advisory Number 4
2020-08-09 22:37:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 092036 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 09 2020 ...ELIDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 106.4W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 106.4 West. Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Elida is expected to become a hurricane on Monday. Some weakening could begin late Tuesday or Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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