je.st
news
Tag: tropical storm
Summary for Tropical Storm Elida (EP4/EP092020)
2020-08-12 16:32:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ELIDA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON THURSDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 the center of Elida was located near 23.5, -118.7 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
elida
Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-08-12 16:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 121432 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 1500 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 118.7W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 118.7W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 118.2W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.2N 119.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.3N 120.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.7N 121.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.3N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 118.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Elida Graphics
2020-08-10 16:37:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Aug 2020 14:37:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Aug 2020 14:37:46 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
elida
Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-08-10 16:36:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 101436 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Elida is very close to reaching hurricane strength. A 1218 UTC SSMIS microwave pass revealed a nearly enclosed eyewall that was somewhat eroded on the west side, possibly due to a bit of north-northwesterly shear (as shown by the SHIPS diagnostics). Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.5/55 kt, while the objective guidance from UW-CIMSS is about 5-10 kt higher. Because of the gradually improving structure in microwave imagery, the initial intensity is set at 60 kt, which is a blend of the intensity estimates. Located along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge which extends from the south-central U.S. southwestward into the Pacific, Elida is moving west-northwestward at 300/13 kt. Confidence in the track forecast remains high since this ridge will be the main driving force for the next 2-3 days, keeping Elida on a west-northwestward but gradually slowing trajectory. In about 3 days, a weaker Elida will turn westward and slow down even further due to lighter low-level steering winds. The spread in the guidance does increase beyond 60 hours, particularly with the GFS showing a significant poleward motion, but this unlikely scenario appears to be due to the model tracker deviating from the path of the surface circulation. The new NHC track forecast is nudged only slightly north of the previous forecast, mainly due to a continuation of Elida's recent trajectory. This new forecast is a blend of the previous forecast and the NOAA-HCCA and TVDG consensus approaches. The SHIPS model suggests that whatever shear is still affecting Elida should die down within the next 12 hours, and the storm has about 24 hours left over waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius. These conditions should allow for continued strengthening over the next day or so, with rapid intensification still a possibility. For that reason, the NHC intensity forecast is just above nearly all of the guidance at 24 hours. After 24 hours, gradual weakening should commence as Elida moves over cooler waters, and the rate of weakening is likely to accelerate by day 3 once southwesterly shear increases. Elida is expected to become a remnant low by day 4 and dissipate by day 5, in accordance with the solutions shown by the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 18.9N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 19.7N 111.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 20.5N 114.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 21.3N 117.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 22.0N 119.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 22.5N 121.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 22.7N 122.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 22.5N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-08-10 16:36:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 101436 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 1500 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 20 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ISLA SOCORRO 34 83 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) ISLA SOCORRO 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 2 11(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 115W 34 2 74(76) 9(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) 20N 115W 50 X 27(27) 14(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) 20N 115W 64 X 10(10) 11(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Sites : [926] [927] [928] [929] [930] [931] [932] [933] [934] [935] [936] [937] [938] [939] [940] [941] [942] [943] [944] [945] next »