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Tropical Storm Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-08-10 10:37:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 100837 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0900 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 22 1(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ISLA SOCORRO 34 70 18(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) ISLA SOCORRO 50 18 14(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) ISLA SOCORRO 64 6 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA CLARION 34 X 6( 6) 11(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 115W 34 X 23(23) 63(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) 20N 115W 50 X 3( 3) 52(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 11(31) X(31) X(31) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Elida (EP4/EP092020)
2020-08-10 10:36:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ELIDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 the center of Elida was located near 18.3, -108.8 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Elida Public Advisory Number 6
2020-08-10 10:36:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 100836 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 ...ELIDA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 108.8W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND MEXICO ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 108.8 West. Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Elida is expected to become a hurricane later today. Steady weakening is forecast begin Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-08-10 10:36:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 100836 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0900 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 108.8W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 108.8W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 108.1W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.1N 110.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.0N 113.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.8N 116.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.5N 118.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.2N 120.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.6N 122.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 22.2N 125.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 21.4N 128.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 108.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Elida Graphics
2020-08-10 04:37:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Aug 2020 02:37:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Aug 2020 02:37:19 GMT
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