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Summary for Tropical Storm Elida (EP4/EP092020)
2020-08-10 16:36:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ELIDA ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A HURRICANE... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 the center of Elida was located near 18.9, -109.8 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Elida Public Advisory Number 7
2020-08-10 16:36:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 101435 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 ...ELIDA ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 109.8W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM E OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 109.8 West. Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this heading with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated during the next day or so, and Elida is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Steady weakening is expected to begin late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-08-10 16:36:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 101435 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 1500 UTC MON AUG 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.8W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 109.8W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 109.1W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 111.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.3N 117.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.0N 119.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.5N 121.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.7N 122.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 22.5N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-08-10 10:51:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 100851 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020 After the earlier burst of deep convection and the development of a small 10-nmi-wide low- to mid-level eye noted in passive microwave satellite imagery, convection has waned somewhat and the eye feature has eroded in the northwestern semicircle due to entrainment of dry air, along with some modest northwesterly vertical wind shear. A 0314Z ASCAT-A overpass revealed peak winds of only 43 kt in the northeastern quadrant, along with a radius of maximum winds (RMW) of 10-15 nmi. Satellite intensity estimates range from T3.5/55 kt from TAFB to T4.0/65 kt from SAB, along with a UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 53 kt and an ADT estimate of 59 kt. An average of these intensity estimates, and allowing for some undersampling by the scatterometer instrument due to Elida's small RMW, supports maintaining an intensity of 55 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward or 300/13 kt. Both the forecast track and rationale remain straight-forward and basically unchanged from the previous advisory. Elida is expected to be steered west-northwestward by a deep layer ridge to the north for the next 72 hours or, followed by a westward motion on days 4 and 5 when Elida will be weakening over much cooler waters and becoming a shallower cyclone. The latest NHC track guidance remains tightly packed and, thus, the new official forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies near the TVCE and NOAA-HCCA consensus track models. The brief intensity hiatus that Elida is experiencing is expected to be short-lived due to the cyclone's small RMW and the vertical shear forecast to decrease to less than 10 kt in the 12-36 hour time frame. This should allow for Elida to strengthen -- possibly even rapidly -- during the next 24 hours, followed by a leveling off in the intensity due to the cyclone moving over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures (SST). By 48-60 h, SSTs less than 25C and modest southwesterly vertical wind shear will combine to induce steady weakening. By 96 h or so, Elida is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone. The new official intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory, but is a little above the consensus models IVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 18.3N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 19.1N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 20.0N 113.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 20.8N 116.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 21.5N 118.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 22.2N 120.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 22.6N 122.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 22.2N 125.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 15/0600Z 21.4N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Elida Graphics
2020-08-10 10:38:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 10 Aug 2020 08:38:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 10 Aug 2020 08:38:21 GMT
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