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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-08-09 22:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 092036 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 106.4W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 15SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 106.4W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 105.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.9N 108.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.9N 111.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.6N 113.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.3N 116.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.0N 118.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.6N 120.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 21.9N 124.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 21.3N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 106.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Elida Graphics
2020-08-09 16:38:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Aug 2020 14:38:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Aug 2020 14:38:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-08-09 16:37:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 091437 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 Based on a 1128 UTC SSMIS pass, Elida appears to have developed a well-defined low-level structure, with a clear center region surrounded by a cyan ring in the 37-GHz channel. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are still below tropical storm strength, however the latest UW-CIMSS ADT up to 45 kt. Given the improving microwave structure, I've opted to go on the higher side of the intensity estimates, initializing the maximum wind speed at 40 kt. The overnight tracking of Elida's center appears to have been really good, as the recent microwave pass and first-light visible imagery show it to be very close to where we thought it was. Elida is moving west-northwestward, or 300/15 kt, to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends from Texas west-southwestward across northern Mexico and over the Pacific. This ridge should keep Elida on a west-northwestward track for the next 3 days or so. After that time, a weakening Elida should be steered by lower-level flow and will begin to move more slowly toward the west on days 4 and 5. This forecast unreasoning is unchanged from before, and since there are no errant track models that deviate from this scenario, the new NHC track forecast remains close to the multi-model consensus aids. Elida's structure revealed in the recent microwave pass that the cyclone is likely primed for continued intensification. With low shear, sufficient ocean heat content, and plenty of mid-level moisture, Elida is expected to strengthen to hurricane intensity around this time tomorrow, with a peak intensity occurring in about 2 days. Given the new set of intensity guidance, the NHC forecast has been raised during the first 2-3 days--not as high as the HCCA model but very close to the HWRF and Florida State Superensemble. Rapid intensification is not out of the question given Elida's structure and environment, with the SHIPS RI guidance showing a 1-in-3 chance of a 30-kt increase over the next 24 hours. After 48 hours, Elida will begin to move over cooler waters, and increasing southwesterly shear should cause a rather quick weakening trend. In fact, global models show all of Elida's deep convection dissipating--if not the entire system itself--by day 5, and the NHC forecast calls for the cyclone to be post tropical by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 16.4N 105.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 17.3N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 18.4N 109.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 19.3N 112.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 20.0N 115.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 20.7N 117.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 21.2N 120.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 21.5N 124.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Elida (EP4/EP092020)
2020-08-09 16:36:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ELIDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY AND BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 the center of Elida was located near 16.4, -105.4 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Elida Public Advisory Number 3
2020-08-09 16:36:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 091436 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 ...ELIDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY AND BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 105.4W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 105.4 West. Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Elida is expected to become a hurricane on Monday. Some weakening could begin late Tuesday or Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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