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Subtropical Storm Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 5
2019-10-12 16:46:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 121446 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019 1500 UTC SAT OCT 12 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. FOR INFORMATION ON COASTAL FLOODING HAZARDS...SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WEATHER.GOV. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 67.0W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 30SE 150SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..780NE 120SE 420SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 67.0W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 67.5W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 38.7N 65.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 39.6N 62.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 40.3N 58.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 41.0N 54.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 42.2N 45.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 67.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Subtropical Storm Melissa Graphics
2019-10-12 10:32:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Oct 2019 08:32:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Oct 2019 08:32:26 GMT
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Melissa (AT4/AL142019)
2019-10-12 10:31:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MELISSA EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST U.S. COAST... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Oct 12 the center of Melissa was located near 38.1, -68.2 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Melissa Public Advisory Number 4
2019-10-12 10:31:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 120831 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 500 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2019 ...MELISSA EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST U.S. COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.1N 68.2W ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. For information on wind and coastal flooding hazards, see products issued by your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 68.2 West. The storm is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the east-northeast is expected later today, followed by a gradual increase in forward speed on Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, Melissa will gradually move away from the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Melissa is expected to become a remnant low by tonight or early Sunday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Wind gusts to 40 mph are possible across portions of Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket during the next few hours. COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to moderate coastal flooding will occur along some portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern New England coast today around times of high tide. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are affecting much of the U.S. east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada. These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Subtropical Storm Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-10-12 10:31:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 120831 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 500 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2019 Deep convection has increased a little near the center of Melissa during the past few hours, likely because it has moved over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream current. However, convection is quite limited elsewhere. An ASCAT-B pass from several hours ago showed maximum winds of about 40 kt in the northwestern quadrant. However, this pass did not completely capture the entire circulation, so the initial intensity is held at 45 kt given that stronger winds could exist in the regions not sampled. This intensity estimate is also in fair agreement with the latest satellite estimates as well. Melissa is expected to resume weakening later today due to a combination of an increase in westerly wind shear and intrusions of dry air. The cyclone will likely degenerate to a remnant low in about 24 hours when the system is forecast to be over SSTs of 23 to 24 C. The remnant low is expected to linger for at least a couple of days before it is absorbed within a frontal zone over the north Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF global models. The subtropical storm has turned northeastward during the last several hours, with the initial motion estimated to be 055/6 kt. The weakening system is expected to become more embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies during the next few days, and as a result, a turn to the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast, taking the cyclone away from the Mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coastline. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the north of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest model runs. Ongoing hazards from wind and coastal flooding will continue to be covered by non-tropical products from local National Weather Service forecast offices. Gale-force winds that extend from Nova Scotia eastward over the Atlantic are not included in the wind radii, since they are associated with a frontal boundary. Key Messages: 1. Melissa is expected to slowly weaken and move away from the U.S. east coast today, resulting in a gradual decrease in wind and coastal flooding impacts. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is still expected along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern New England coasts around times of high tide today. For more information, see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices at weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 38.1N 68.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 38.4N 66.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 39.0N 63.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/1800Z 39.6N 60.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0600Z 40.3N 56.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z 41.6N 47.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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