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Subtropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-09-24 10:31:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 021 FONT13 KNHC 240831 PWSAT3 SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC MON SEP 24 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Subtropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-09-24 04:45:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 02:45:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 03:28:10 GMT
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-09-24 04:44:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 23 the center of Leslie was located near 33.3, -48.5 with movement SW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 3
2018-09-24 04:44:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 254 WTNT33 KNHC 240244 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.3N 48.5W ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 48.5 West. The storm is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and little motion is anticipated through Monday. An eastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected by Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, and Leslie is forecast to be merge with a larger non-tropical low by the middle of the week. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-09-24 04:44:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 255 WTNT43 KNHC 240244 TCDAT3 Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 There has been little change in the organization of the subtropical cyclone over the past several hours. Patches of deep convection continue to develop over the southeastern portion of the circulation but there is a lack of convective banding elsewhere. The initial intensity remains 35 kt, which is based on a partial ASCAT pass that detected 25-30 kt winds over the northwestern portion of the storm this evening. Leslie is not forecast to strengthen over the next day or so due to dry air and moderate vertical shear. By 48 hours, some increase in wind is predicted as Leslie interacts with an approaching baroclinic zone. Leslie jogged west-southwestward for a few hours this evening, but has since turned southwestward and slowed down. The system is forecast to move little over the next 24 hours, then begin a faster eastward motion on Monday night and Tuesday as a mid-latitude trough and associated cold front digs southeastward over the central Atlantic. The global models indicate that the front will overtake Leslie in about 48 hours, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become an extratropical low at that time. The evolution of the system becomes even more complex after that, as the GFS shows Leslie being absorbed by a new non-tropical low pressure area to the north, while some of other global models maintain post-tropical Leslie as the primary low pressure area. For now, the NHC forecast maintains continuity with the previous advisories and calls for the system to merge with the larger front/low by 72 h, but there is a high level of uncertainty in the exact evolution and structure of the system. Regardless of the details of the evolution, a large non-tropical low pressure area with gale- to storm-force winds is expected to be over the east-central Atlantic later this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 33.3N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 33.1N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 33.1N 47.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 32.9N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 33.1N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONT AND LARGER LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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