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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-21 13:49:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
474 ABNT20 KNHC 211149 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located a couple hundred miles north-northeast of Puerto Rico. A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. The wave is forecast to move quickly westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph for the next day or two, crossing the Windward Islands on Sunday. Although the system is currently disorganized, environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some development and a tropical depression could form later this weekend or early next week. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over much of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A broad area of low pressure centered near the eastern tip of Cuba continues to produce only disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is not expected while it moves slowly west-northwestward during the next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds and interaction with land. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba through the weekend, potentially causing flash flooding and mudslides in areas of high terrain. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-21 07:58:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
018 ABNT20 KNHC 210558 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Jerry, located more than a hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands. A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are currently conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form on Sunday or early next week while the system moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, crossing the Windward Islands on Sunday. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by the middle of next week once the wave moves out of the northeastern Caribbean Sea. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over much of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A broad area of low pressure located just south of Haiti continues to produce only disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Due to strong upper-level winds, significant development of this system is not expected while it moves slowly west-northwestward during the next couple of days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba through the weekend, potentially causing flash flooding and mudslides in areas of high terrain. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-21 01:46:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 202346 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Jerry, located a little more than a hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands. A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are currently conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves quickly westward to west- northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, crossing the Windward Islands Saturday night and Sunday. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development early next week once the wave moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands over the weekend, and interests on those islands should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A broad area of low pressure located just south of Haiti continues to produce only disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Due to strong upper-level winds, significant development of this system is not expected while it moves slowly west-northwestward during the next couple of days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba through the weekend, potentially causing flash flooding and mudslides in areas of high terrain. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-20 19:55:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 201755 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Jerry, located about a hundred miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands has increased during the past 24 hours. The wave is expected to head quickly westward at about 20 mph during the next few days and will move across the Windward Islands this weekend. Some development is possible during that time and a tropical depression could form by early next week. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development next week once the wave moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A broad area of low pressure located just south of Haiti has become a little better defined today. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is still disorganized, and pressures in the region are rising. Strong upper-level winds will likely prevent significant development of this system while it moves slowly west-northwestward for the next few days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba through the weekend. These heavy rains could cause flash flooding and mudslides in areas of high terrain. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-20 13:44:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 201144 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Jerry, located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. A tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to move quickly westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and some development is possible while it approaches and moves across the Windward Islands this weekend. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development once the wave moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A broad area of low pressure located over the central Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly to the east and northeast of its center of circulation. This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward and significant development is unlikely due to strong upper-level winds. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Greater Antilles during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
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