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Hurricane MATTHEW Graphics

2016-10-06 23:32:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 06 Oct 2016 20:52:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 06 Oct 2016 21:05:36 GMT

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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 35

2016-10-06 22:53:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 062052 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane just reached Matthew and measured 121 kt at the 700-mb level and a minimum pressure of of 936 mb. Until the plane finishes sampling the circulation, the initial intensity is kept at 120 kt. There some indications that an outer eyewall is trying to form, and perhaps an eyewall cycle will occur. If so, some weakening could occur, but there could also be fluctuations in intensity while the hurricane moves toward the east coast of Florida that are not explicitly shown here. After 24 hours, the combination of land interaction and a significant increase in the shear should cause weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the SHIPS guidance during the next day or so, and it follows the trend of the consensus thereafter. Satellite and aircraft fixes show that Matthew is still moving toward the northwest or 325 degrees at 11 kt. The steering flow has not changed, and Matthew should continue to move around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge located over the western Atlantic during the next 24 to 36 hours. This portion of the NHC forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus. After that time, the hurricane will become embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies and should turn sharply eastward for a day or so. Then the steering pattern is forecast to change again, and the track forecast becomes highly uncertain. Both the GFS and the ECMWF turn a much weaker Matthew southward and southwestward. The NHC forecast follows the southwestward trend, and is in the middle of these two global models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the northwestern Bahamas today, and along extensive portions of the east coast of Florida tonight. 2. Evacuations are not just a coastal event. Strong winds will occur well inland from the coast, and residents of mobile homes under evacuation orders are urged to heed those orders. 3. Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and residents of high-rise buildings are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds at the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface. 4. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one location. Only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and Georgia. Modest deviations to the right could keep much of the hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are possible in the hurricane watch and warning areas in northeast Georgia and South Carolina. 5. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in Florida and Georgia. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 26.2N 78.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 27.6N 79.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 29.6N 81.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 31.2N 81.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 32.1N 80.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 31.5N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 29.0N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 35

2016-10-06 22:52:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 062051 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016 ...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW ABOUT TO HIT FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS... ...POTENTIALLY DISASTROUS IMPACTS FOR FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 78.6W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward to South Santee River, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of South Santee River to Surf City, North Carolina. The Government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for the Central Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * North of Golden Beach to South Santee River * Lake Okeechobee A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Chokoloskee to Golden Beach * Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward * Florida Bay * Anclote River to Suwannee River * North of South Santee River to Surf City A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Chokoloskee to Anclote River Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and in the Carolinas should monitor the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 78.6 West. The hurricane is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue tonight with a turn toward the north-northwest early Friday. On the forecast track, the eye of Matthew should move near or over Freeport in the Bahamas in the next hour or so, and move close to or over the east coast of the Florida peninsula through Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely while the hurricane moves toward the coast of Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). Settlement Point in the Bahamas, recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) with a gust of 62 mph (100 km/hr). The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane was 938 mb (27.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the northwestern Bahamas this evening. Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area in Florida this evening and will spread northward within the warning area through Friday. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward in the warning area along the Florida east coast tonight and Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward in the warning area in Georgia and South Carolina Friday night and Saturday with tropical storm conditions expected on Friday. Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone. Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in the Carolinas on Friday night and Saturday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including portions of the St. Johns River...7 to 11 ft Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South Carolina...4 to 6 ft Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet, Florida...4 to 6 ft South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach, Florida...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life- threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South Carolina coast from Deerfield Beach, Florida, to South Santee River, South Carolina. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of South Santee River, South Carolina, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas: The central and northern Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Coastal eastern Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and southeast North Carolina....5 to 10 inches, isolated 12 inches Rainfall should diminish across central and eastern Cuba with isolated additional amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible through this evening. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible along the east-central Florida coast tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days, and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35

2016-10-06 22:52:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 062051 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 2100 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) 1(11) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14) X(14) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 7(21) 1(22) X(22) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 10(20) 3(23) X(23) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 12(21) 4(25) X(25) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 12(22) 4(26) X(26) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 15(32) 3(35) X(35) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 14(22) 14(36) 2(38) X(38) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 16(29) 18(47) 2(49) 1(50) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 14(30) 8(38) 1(39) X(39) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 3( 3) 15(18) 10(28) 5(33) X(33) X(33) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 17(33) 15(48) 2(50) X(50) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) 18(38) 15(53) 1(54) X(54) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 5( 5) 26(31) 17(48) 14(62) 1(63) X(63) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 8(23) 1(24) X(24) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 11(11) 32(43) 16(59) 10(69) X(69) X(69) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 11(11) 15(26) 7(33) 1(34) X(34) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 19(20) 36(56) 11(67) 5(72) X(72) X(72) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 1( 1) 20(21) 12(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 5( 5) 15(20) 10(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 30(31) 33(64) 8(72) 3(75) X(75) X(75) SAVANNAH GA 50 X 2( 2) 27(29) 8(37) 3(40) X(40) X(40) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) KINGS BAY GA 34 3 70(73) 14(87) 1(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) KINGS BAY GA 50 X 27(27) 28(55) 3(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) KINGS BAY GA 64 X 10(10) 25(35) 1(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) WAYCROSS GA 34 2 36(38) 26(64) 4(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) WAYCROSS GA 50 X 5( 5) 11(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) WAYCROSS GA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 4 77(81) 9(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X 42(42) 21(63) 2(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X 19(19) 24(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) JACKSONVILLE 34 3 75(78) 11(89) 2(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) JACKSONVILLE 50 X 35(35) 22(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) JACKSONVILLE 64 X 13(13) 19(32) 1(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) GAINESVILLE FL 34 4 69(73) 6(79) 3(82) X(82) 1(83) X(83) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X 17(17) 5(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 53 45(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 50 4 78(82) 2(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) DAYTONA BEACH 64 1 64(65) 3(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) THE VILLAGES 34 16 67(83) 2(85) 2(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) THE VILLAGES 50 2 27(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) THE VILLAGES 64 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 74 23(97) X(97) X(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) ORLANDO FL 50 11 58(69) 1(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) ORLANDO FL 64 3 37(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) COCOA BEACH FL 34 97 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 50 62 30(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) COCOA BEACH FL 64 28 53(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) PATRICK AFB 34 97 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PATRICK AFB 50 60 32(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) PATRICK AFB 64 27 53(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) FT PIERCE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) FT PIERCE FL 50 89 3(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) FT PIERCE FL 64 69 8(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) W PALM BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) W PALM BEACH 50 64 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) W PALM BEACH 64 28 X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) FT LAUDERDALE 34 83 X(83) 1(84) X(84) 1(85) 1(86) X(86) FT LAUDERDALE 50 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) FT LAUDERDALE 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 31 2(33) 1(34) 1(35) X(35) 2(37) 2(39) MIAMI FL 50 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) MARATHON FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) KEY WEST FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) NAPLES FL 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 2(11) 1(12) FT MYERS FL 34 6 4(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) 2(15) 1(16) VENICE FL 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) 2(14) X(14) TAMPA FL 34 6 22(28) 3(31) 2(33) 1(34) 1(35) X(35) TAMPA FL 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 3 26(29) 5(34) 3(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) ST MARKS FL 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) APALACHICOLA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANDROS 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 35

2016-10-06 22:51:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 062051 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 2100 UTC THU OCT 06 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO SURF CITY...NORTH CAROLINA. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE * NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHOKOLOSKEE TO GOLDEN BEACH * FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EASTWARD * FLORIDA BAY * ANCLOTE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER * NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO SURF CITY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ANCLOTE RIVER INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND IN THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 78.6W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......160NE 130SE 70SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 78.6W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 78.3W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.6N 79.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 29.6N 81.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 31.2N 81.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 160SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 32.1N 80.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 31.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 29.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 78.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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