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Hurricane Teddy Graphics

2020-09-20 22:56:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 20:56:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 20:56:11 GMT

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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34

2020-09-20 22:55:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 202054 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) X(21) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 24(49) X(49) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) X(16) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 30(65) X(65) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) X(29) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 46(46) 21(67) X(67) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 16(33) X(33) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 62(63) 6(69) X(69) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 5(32) X(32) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 64(65) 9(74) X(74) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 9(40) X(40) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 54(65) 3(68) X(68) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 2(27) X(27) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 60(73) 1(74) X(74) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 2(44) X(44) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 33(49) X(49) X(49) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 2(32) X(32) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) X(24) X(24) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) X(23) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BERMUDA 34 48 30(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) BERMUDA 50 5 15(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) BERMUDA 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)

2020-09-20 22:54:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA... ...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 20 the center of Teddy was located near 29.0, -63.4 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 34

2020-09-20 22:54:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 202054 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA... ...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 63.4W ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Canso. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lower East Pubnico to Canso Nova Scotia A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 63.4 West. Teddy is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight, and Teddy is then forecast to continue generally northward for another couple days. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda tonight, and the center should pass east of the island Monday morning. Teddy is forecast to be approaching Nova Scotia late Tuesday or Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast, and the system is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane through Tuesday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone on Wednesday. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda tonight and could continue into Monday night. Tropical storm conditions could begin over Nova Scotia on Tuesday afternoon. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 34

2020-09-20 22:54:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 202053 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO CANSO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO CANSO NOVA SCOTIA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 63.4W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT.......120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..510NE 330SE 360SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 63.4W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 63.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 30.1N 63.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 200SE 160SW 260NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 32.8N 62.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...280NE 200SE 200SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 36.9N 63.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 50 KT...190NE 140SE 120SW 180NW. 34 KT...400NE 300SE 300SW 350NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...160NE 110SE 120SW 140NW. 34 KT...340NE 280SE 270SW 260NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.7N 63.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...260NE 280SE 250SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 46.0N 61.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 240SE 160SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 54.5N 50.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 63.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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