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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

2020-09-17 22:56:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 172056 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 37(71) 3(74) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 30(40) 3(43) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 3(26) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Tags: number speed wind hurricane

Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 22

2020-09-17 22:55:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 172055 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 54.1W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 90SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 54.1W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 53.7W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.2N 55.2W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 90SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.8N 56.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 170SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.5N 58.1W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.3N 59.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.0N 62.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 29.5N 63.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 130SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 33.9N 63.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 41.3N 62.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 54.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Tags: number advisory forecast hurricane

Hurricane Teddy Graphics

2020-09-17 17:17:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Sep 2020 15:17:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Sep 2020 15:33:38 GMT

Tags: graphics hurricane teddy hurricane graphics

Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 21

2020-09-17 17:03:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 171502 CCA TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 21...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 Corrected to add Key Messages Since the previous advisory, Teddy's satellite appearance has steadily improved. There is now a ragged warming eye surrounded by a ring of convection with cloud tops colder than -60 degrees C. Very recently the objective satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have been rapidly increasing. And although a blend of the 1130 and 1200 UTC Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, respectively, averaged out to an intensity of about 95 kt, the improved satellite presentation since that time suggests that the hurricane should have winds of at least 105 kt, which is the initial intensity for this advisory, which could even be a little conservative based on the latest UW-CIMMS ADT and SATCON values of 120 and 111 kt, respectively. There will be NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft inside Teddy later today, which should provide much more detail on the structure and intensity of Teddy. The only negative factor for intensification during the next 24 h is about 10 to 15 kt of vertical wind shear. However, Teddy has been able to begin the latest burst of intensification despite that shear. Therefore additional strengthening is anticipated through this evening, and Teddy is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane by tonight. The overall environment does not change significantly for the next couple of days, so other than some fluctuations intensity such as due to potential eyewall replacement cycles, no change in strength is indicated during that time. As Teddy continues moving northwest over the weekend, it is likely to begin to encounter some of the cooler waters upwelled by Hurricane Paulette last week. This could cause the cyclone to slowly weaken. By late this weekend, increasing vertical wind shear should also contribute to weakening. Due to the fast increase in intensity this morning, the latest NHC intensity is a bit higher than all of the guidance for the first 48 h, but the overall intensity trends are closely mirrored by the various multi-model consensus. Beyond 48 h, the NHC forecast closely follows the LGEM guidance. Teddy continues to move northwestward at 10 kt. The track forecast and reasoning both remain straightforward and unchanged for the next 72 h. The latest NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement that a deep-layer ridge situated over the central Atlantic will force Teddy on a northwestward track toward the western Atlantic. There is a little less divergence among the models on days 4 and 5 then on previous cycles, and these differences are due to timing differences in where and how fast the hurricane begins to recurve ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough and frontal system moving off the coast of the eastern United States in about 3 days. The new NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is in the middle of the tightly clustered track guidance. On the forecast track, Teddy will make its closest approach to Bermuda on Monday. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or Monday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda is increasing. 2. Swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States late this week and into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 19.3N 53.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 20.4N 54.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 21.8N 55.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 23.5N 57.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 25.5N 58.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 28.7N 62.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 32.4N 63.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 38.9N 62.3W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)

2020-09-17 17:00:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TEDDY BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 17 the center of Teddy was located near 19.3, -53.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Tags: summary hurricane teddy at5al202020

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