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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 24
2020-09-18 10:35:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 180834 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTEREST IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 55.4W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 55.4W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 55.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.8N 56.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.7N 58.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.6N 59.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.2N 61.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 29.8N 62.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 32.2N 62.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 170SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 39.7N 61.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 46.0N 62.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 55.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Teddy Graphics
2020-09-18 04:52:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 02:52:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 02:52:20 GMT
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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2020-09-18 04:37:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 180237 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 52(54) 24(78) 1(79) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 23(47) X(47) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 17(28) X(28) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-18 04:36:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE TEDDY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 17 the center of Teddy was located near 20.9, -54.7 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 945 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 23
2020-09-18 04:36:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 180236 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 ...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE TEDDY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 54.7W ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interest in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Teddy. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 54.7 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible through Friday, with a weakening trend likely to begin this weekend. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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