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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2020-09-18 22:56:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 182056 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20(27) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 28(37) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 32(44) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 27(49) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 27(52) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) 15(59) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 17(55) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 11(27) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 6(29) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 16(29) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 12(24) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 30(57) 1(58) X(58) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) X(23) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-18 22:56:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA AS MAJOR HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUES TO HEAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 18 the center of Teddy was located near 23.1, -57.0 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 951 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 26
2020-09-18 22:56:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 182056 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 57.0W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 270SE 300SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 57.0W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 56.6W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.5N 58.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.5N 59.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.1N 61.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 29.7N 62.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 31.8N 62.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 180SE 150SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.6N 61.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. 34 KT...310NE 230SE 220SW 290NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 43.2N 62.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 48.5N 59.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 57.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 26
2020-09-18 22:56:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 182056 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA AS MAJOR HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUES TO HEAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 57.0W ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 795 MI...1275 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 57.0 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north by early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will be approaching Bermuda late Sunday or Monday. NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are expected through Saturday, and a weakening trend is forecast to begin late this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The minimum central pressure measured by the aircraft is 951 mb (28.08 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday afternoon. These conditions may linger throughout most of the day Monday. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the northeastern coast of South America, the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas, and will spread to Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 25
2020-09-18 16:50:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 181450 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 There was little change to the structure of Teddy since early this morning up until the past hour or so, when the eye began to fill in slightly while the cloud tops over the southern portion of the circulation warmed a bit. However, new convection with very cold cloud tops near -80 degrees C have developed recently over the northwestern quadrant, so the cyclone could just be undergoing a temporary intensity fluctuation that typically occurs in powerful hurricanes. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates range from 102 kt to 116 kt, and the initial intensity is being held at 115 kt for this advisory. There will be staggered NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve Hunter aircraft investigating Teddy starting this morning and continuing into the late afternoon, so they will soon be able to provide updated details on the latest structure, size, and intensity of the hurricane. The major hurricane continues to move northwestward, now at 10 kt. Teddy is expected to remain on that general course during the next couple of days as it moves on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. By the end of the weekend, when Teddy will likely be approaching Bermuda, a turn to the north or north-northeast is forecast to occur as a mid- to upper-level trough moves off the northeastern U.S. coast. Early next week, the trough is expected to cut off, causing Teddy to turn slightly to the left and approach Nova Scotia in 4 to 5 days. The models continue to be in good agreement on this scenario, and only small adjustments were made to the previous forecast track. Teddy will likely fluctuate in intensity over the next day or so while it remains in favorable conditions of low wind shear, warm waters, and a fairly moist air mass. By late this weekend, the hurricane is forecast to traverse over cooler waters churned up by Paulette last week. This should cause a weakening trend to begin. By Monday night, vertical wind shear is expected to drastically increase ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough. This should not only weaken Teddy, but begin its transition to a large extratropical cyclone, and that transition should be completed before the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is near the HFIP corrected consensus aid HCCA through 36 h, and then trends toward the SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance thereafter. Teddy is producing a large area of high seas. The latest maximum seas estimated by TAFB near the core of the hurricane are near 45 feet. Swells from Teddy are spreading far from the center, see Key Messages below. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or Monday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity near the island are not yet known, there is a risk strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda, and watches may be issued later today or tonight. 2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 22.1N 56.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 23.3N 57.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 25.2N 58.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 27.1N 60.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 28.7N 62.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 30.7N 62.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 33.7N 62.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 41.4N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 46.8N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto
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