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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 28
2016-06-03 16:35:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 031435 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016 Convection associated with Bonnie has decreased this morning as the center moves over sea surface temperatures of less than 25C east of the Gulf Stream. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. While little change in the wind speed is forecast during the next 48 hours, Bonnie should degenerate into a remnant low in 24 hours or less due to the affects of the cold water and increasing vertical wind shear. The system is then expected to weaken to a trough by 72 hours. The initial motion is now 080/10. The cyclone should move generally eastward along the southern edge of the westerlies with some increase in forward speed until dissipation. The new forecast track lies near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 35.9N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 36.1N 69.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 36.0N 66.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 35.6N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 35.2N 59.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2016-06-03 16:35:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 03 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 031435 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1500 UTC FRI JUN 03 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression BONNIE (AT2/AL022016)
2016-06-03 16:34:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BONNIE MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS EAST OF THE GULF STREAM... As of 11:00 AM EDT Fri Jun 3 the center of BONNIE was located near 35.9, -72.0 with movement E at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Public Advisory Number 28
2016-06-03 16:34:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 031434 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016 ...BONNIE MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS EAST OF THE GULF STREAM... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.9N 72.0W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Bonnie was located near latitude 35.9 North, longitude 72.0 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. However, Bonnie is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical low by Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Advisory Number 28
2016-06-03 16:34:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 03 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 031434 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1500 UTC FRI JUN 03 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 72.0W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 72.0W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 72.5W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 36.1N 69.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.0N 66.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 35.6N 63.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 35.2N 59.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.9N 72.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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