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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Advisory Number 27
2016-06-03 10:47:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 03 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 030847 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 0900 UTC FRI JUN 03 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 73.3W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 73.3W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 73.7W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 36.0N 71.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 36.1N 68.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 36.0N 64.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 35.6N 60.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.8N 73.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Graphics
2016-06-03 05:06:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 03 Jun 2016 02:36:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 03 Jun 2016 03:03:36 GMT
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 26
2016-06-03 04:37:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 030237 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016 The last observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft from several hours ago showed that Bonnie had changed little in intensity and remained just below tropical storm strength. Since that time, the cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has not become better organized, and the center appears to be located on the southeast edge of the main area of deep convection. The current intensity is held at 30 kt, and this is in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. There is a short window of opportunity for Bonnie to strengthen a bit as it traverses the Gulf Stream and the vertical shear remains light during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, increasing shear and cooler waters should cause the system to weaken and degenerate into a remnant low. The official intensity forecast is the same as that from the previous advisory. This is close to the model consensus and somewhat below the DSHIPS and LGEM predictions. By 96 hours, the post-tropical cyclone is expected to become absorbed by an extratropical low over the north Atlantic. The initial motion is about 055/5. The track forecast reasoning remains basically unchanged from the previous couple of advisory packages. Bonnie should continue to be steered by the flow on the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies and gradually turn eastward with acceleration over the next few days. The official forecast track is very similar to the previous one and close to a consensus of the dynamical models, which themselves are in good agreement. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 35.7N 74.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 36.0N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 36.4N 70.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 36.4N 66.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z 36.2N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z 35.0N 54.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression BONNIE (AT2/AL022016)
2016-06-03 04:35:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BONNIE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 the center of BONNIE was located near 35.7, -74.3 with movement NE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Public Advisory Number 26
2016-06-03 04:35:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 030235 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016 ...BONNIE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.7N 74.3W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Bonnie was located near latitude 35.7 North, longitude 74.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a turn toward the east-northeast and east with increasing forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, and Bonnie could become a tropical storm again. A weakening trend is expected to begin by Friday night, and Bonnie is expected to again become a post-tropical low on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf are possible along portions of the North Carolina coast, including the Outer Banks, through tonight. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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