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Tropical Depression BONNIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2016-06-03 04:35:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 03 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 030235 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 0300 UTC FRI JUN 03 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Advisory Number 26
2016-06-03 04:33:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 03 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 030233 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 0300 UTC FRI JUN 03 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 74.3W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 74.3W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 74.6W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.0N 72.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 36.4N 70.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.4N 66.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 36.2N 63.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 35.0N 54.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.7N 74.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Graphics
2016-06-02 23:06:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 02 Jun 2016 20:38:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 02 Jun 2016 21:03:35 GMT
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 25
2016-06-02 22:37:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 022036 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016 Coastal observations, Doppler radar data, and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Bonnie is a little stronger than on the previous advisory, and the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer instrument on the aircraft has estimated surface winds as high as 39 kt. However, these estimates are uncertain due to rain contamination and bathemetry issues. Based on other data, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 30 kt. The initial motion estimate is 050/5. There is little change in the track forecast philosophy since the last advisory. Bonnie continues to move along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone should move generally east-northeastward to eastward with a gradual increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. The track forecast follows the various consensus models, which remain tightly clustered. The center of Bonnie will be moving over warm Gulf Stream waters for the next 12 hours or so while the vertical wind shear is light. Thus, the intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening during that time, bringing Bonnie back to a tropical storm. After that, increasing shear and sea surface temperatures below 24C should cause Bonnie to again degenerate to a remnant low, with the system weakening to a trough in the westerlies by 96 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 35.4N 74.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 35.8N 73.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 36.3N 70.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 36.5N 67.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 36.5N 63.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z 36.0N 55.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2016-06-02 22:36:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 02 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 022035 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 2100 UTC THU JUN 02 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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