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Tropical Depression BONNIE Graphics
2016-06-03 11:06:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 03 Jun 2016 08:48:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 03 Jun 2016 09:03:37 GMT
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 27
2016-06-03 10:56:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 030856 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016 Bonnie's cloud pattern has become slightly better organized, with a cluster of deep convection in the southwestern quadrant of the cyclone expanding in coverage and gaining greater curvature. However, nighttime visible satellite imagery and Doppler radar data from Morehead City, North Carolina, still show Bonnie's low-level center exposed to the northeast of this convective mass. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are the same as those from 0000 UTC, and with the cloud pattern not fundamentally different since that time, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Bonnie is currently passing over the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream that peak around 25.5 deg C, and the warmer water and a generally low-shear environment could allow the cyclone to re-attain tropical storm status today. By 24 hours, lower sea surface temperatures and a substantial increase in westerly shear should result in weakening, and Bonnie is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. The new NHC intensity forecast is about the same as the previous one and overall a little below the statistical-dynamical guidance. Bonnie has turned east-northeastward and begun to move a little faster, with an initial motion estimate of 075/07. Global models show Bonnie turning eastward soon and accelerating further as it rides along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies for the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast is slightly to the south of and faster than the previous one, following the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 35.8N 73.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 36.0N 71.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 36.1N 68.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 36.0N 64.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 35.6N 60.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2016-06-03 10:50:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 03 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 030850 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 0900 UTC FRI JUN 03 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Tropical Depression BONNIE (AT2/AL022016)
2016-06-03 10:49:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BONNIE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND FASTER... As of 5:00 AM EDT Fri Jun 3 the center of BONNIE was located near 35.8, -73.3 with movement ENE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression BONNIE Public Advisory Number 27
2016-06-03 10:49:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 030849 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016 ...BONNIE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND FASTER... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.8N 73.3W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Bonnie was located near latitude 35.8 North, longitude 73.3 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the east with increasing forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today, and Bonnie could again become a tropical storm. Weakening should begin by tonight, however, and Bonnie is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Dangerous surf conditions are still possible along portions of the North Carolina coast, including the Outer Banks, through today. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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