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Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Advisory Number 32
2016-06-04 16:32:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 04 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 041432 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1500 UTC SAT JUN 04 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 66.4W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 66.4W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 67.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 35.1N 64.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.6N 60.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 34.1N 57.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N 66.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm BONNIE Graphics
2016-06-04 11:06:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 04 Jun 2016 08:40:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 04 Jun 2016 09:03:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 31
2016-06-04 10:41:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT JUN 04 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 040841 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 AM AST SAT JUN 04 2016 Deep convection had essentially vanished, but a new puff of thunderstorms redeveloped east of the center during the last few hours. The low-level circulation remains exposed west of the convective mass due to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear. An earlier ASCAT pass showed reliable 33-kt winds when the cyclone was devoid of convection. It is assumed that, with the new convective burst, tropical-storm-force winds still likely exist. Thus, the initial wind speed estimate is held at 35 kt. A further increase in shear and Bonnie's movement over 22 deg C water should cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours. Global models show Bonnie opening up into a trough by 48 hours, with its remnants absorbed by a frontal zone over the central North Atlantic soon after that. The new NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the previous one and the latest statistical-dynamical guidance. The initial motion estimate is 090/10. Bonnie continues to be carried eastward along the southern edge of a nearly zonal flow over the western Atlantic. The track model guidance shows Bonnie moving just south of due east with additional acceleration prior to dissipation. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a bit southward and is slightly slower than the previous forecast, following the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 35.9N 68.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 35.5N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 34.9N 62.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1800Z 34.4N 58.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Tropical Storm BONNIE (AT2/AL022016)
2016-06-04 10:39:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BONNIE STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Jun 4 the center of BONNIE was located near 35.9, -68.2 with movement E at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm BONNIE Public Advisory Number 31
2016-06-04 10:39:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT JUN 04 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 040839 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 AM AST SAT JUN 04 2016 ...BONNIE STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.9N 68.2W ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM NW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located near latitude 35.9 North, longitude 68.2 West. Bonnie is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a generally eastward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Bonnie is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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