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Tropical Storm BONNIE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2016-06-04 10:39:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 04 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 040839 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 0900 UTC SAT JUN 04 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tropical Storm BONNIE Forecast Advisory Number 31
2016-06-04 10:37:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 04 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 040837 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 0900 UTC SAT JUN 04 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 68.2W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 68.2W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 68.8W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 35.5N 65.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 34.9N 62.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 34.4N 58.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.9N 68.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm BONNIE Graphics
2016-06-04 05:06:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 04 Jun 2016 02:34:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 04 Jun 2016 03:03:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 30
2016-06-04 04:33:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI JUN 03 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 040233 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 PM AST FRI JUN 03 2016 After the burst of deep convection noted earlier today, thunderstorm activity associated with Bonnie has diminished considerably with the only remaining convection occurring over a small area in the southeast quadrant of the circulation. The maximum wind speed is kept at 35 kt in agreement with a Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB. Given the current lack of deep convection, this intensity estimate may be generous. Since the system will be traversing cool waters of near 22 deg C and vertical shear is forecast to increase to near 30 kt over the next 24-48 hours, Bonnie is predicted to gradually weaken and soon become a remnant low. Global models show the cyclone becoming absorbed by another low over the north Atlantic in 48 to 72 hours. The initial motion estimate is 090/10. Bonnie is moving along the northern side of a subtropical ridge and the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and this steering regime should continue for the next couple of days. The track model guidance is in general agreement on a continued eastward motion with some acceleration over the next 48 hours. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF output and similar to the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 35.9N 69.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 35.7N 67.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 35.4N 64.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1200Z 34.8N 60.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z 34.3N 56.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm BONNIE (AT2/AL022016)
2016-06-04 04:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BONNIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Jun 3 the center of BONNIE was located near 35.9, -69.6 with movement E at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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