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Tropical Storm EARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2016-08-02 22:34:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 022034 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 2100 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 16(24) 2(26) X(26) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) COZUMEL MX 34 X 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BELIZE CITY 34 X 13(13) 50(63) 4(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) BELIZE CITY 50 X 1( 1) 22(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GUANAJA 34 3 52(55) 7(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) GUANAJA 50 X 17(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) GUANAJA 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Tropical Storm EARL (AT5/AL052016)

2016-08-02 22:34:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TROPICAL STORM EARL EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE HONDURAS BAY ISLANDS ON ITS WAY TO BELIZE... As of 5:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 the center of EARL was located near 16.4, -81.5 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory Number 2

2016-08-02 22:34:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 022034 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 ...TROPICAL STORM EARL EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE HONDURAS BAY ISLANDS ON ITS WAY TO BELIZE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 81.5W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the Cayman Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. * Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border including the Bay Islands. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 81.5 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On this track, the core of Earl is expected to pass just north of the Honduras Bay Islands Wednesday afternoon and then be very near the Belize coast early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Earl could be near hurricane strength as it approaches Belize and the Yucatan peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of Honduras by late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico and Belize within the warning area by Wednesday night or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions could begin in Mexico and Belize within the hurricane watch area Wednesday night or early Thursday. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over Jamaica. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Advisory Number 2

2016-08-02 22:34:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 022033 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 2100 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO...SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER. * CABO GRACIAS A DIOS WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO...SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 81.5W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 81.5W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 80.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.5N 83.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.0N 86.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.5N 88.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.0N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.0N 94.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 20.0N 98.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 81.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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