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Hurricane EARL Public Advisory Number 8

2016-08-04 10:53:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 040853 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 400 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 ...EARL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER BELIZE... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 88.9W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WSW OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. Interests along the southern coast of the Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress of Earl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 88.9 West. A turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to move across central and northern Belize this morning, move across northern Guatemala and the southern Yucatan Peninsula later today, and be near or over the southern Bay of Campeche Friday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts, and additional weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland. Earl is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later this morning and to a tropical depression by Friday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading through central and northern Belize near the center of Earl. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across the coasts of Belize and Mexico elsewhere in the warned area, and should spread into the southern Yucatan Peninsula and northern Guatemala this morning. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and the Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana, Tabasco and Veracruz through Friday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in Belize, northern Guatemala and the central part of the Mexican state of Chiapas. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A storm surge along the immediate coast of Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula should subside today as the center of Earl moves farther inland. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane EARL Forecast Advisory Number 8

2016-08-04 10:53:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 04 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 040853 TCMAT5 HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 0900 UTC THU AUG 04 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO COSTA MAYA...MEXICO...SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 88.9W AT 04/0900Z...INLAND POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 88.9W AT 04/0900Z...INLAND AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 88.3W...ON COAST FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.8N 90.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.3N 92.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.6N 94.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.0N 96.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.5N 99.5W...INLAND/REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 88.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane EARL Graphics

2016-08-04 07:58:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Aug 2016 05:58:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Aug 2016 03:04:37 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane EARL (AT5/AL052016)

2016-08-04 06:54:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CENTER OF EARL MAKES LANDFALL NEAR BELIZE CITY... As of 1:00 AM CDT Thu Aug 4 the center of EARL was located near 17.4, -88.3 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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