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Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory Number 5A
2016-08-03 19:31:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 031731 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 100 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016 ...EARL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE LANDFALL IN BELIZE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 85.6W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. * Bay Islands, Honduras. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border. * North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 85.6 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl is expected to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands this afternoon, and then make landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. An Air Force reconnaissance plane currently investigating Earl has not measured winds of hurricane force. However, additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 hours or so, and Earl is expected to be a hurricane by the time it reaches Belize. Weakening is expected after the center of Earl moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) mainly to the north and east of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane was 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are probably already occurring along the north coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm warning area by tonight or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the Bay Islands of Honduras later today and in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico tonight or early Thursday. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 16 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on the Bay Island of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm EARL Graphics
2016-08-03 17:05:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Aug 2016 14:55:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Aug 2016 15:05:38 GMT
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Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-08-03 16:52:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 031452 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane left Earl about 3 hours ago, and found that the cyclone was a little stronger. Since that time, the cloud pattern presentation on satellite has improved, and Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB suggest that Earl could be a hurricane. An Air Force plane just reached the cyclone and measured a central pressure of 991 mb with 26 kt from a dropsonde, but so far no hurricane-force winds. So, the initial intensity is kept at 60 kt. The only factor which could inhibit additional strengthening today is the interaction of the circulation with Central America, but nonetheless Earl is expected to increase a little in intensity before landfall in Belize early Thursday. After landfall, weakening is anticipated, and only slight strengthening is possible if the center of the cyclone moves over the Bay of Campeche. Earl has continued to move generally westward about 12 kt. The cyclone is well embedded within the deep easterly flow around a strong and persistent high pressure system over the United States. This pattern should continue to steer Earl on a general westward track over Belize and Yucatan, and the latest guidance suggests that the cyclone will remain over land or very near the coast over the southern Bay of Campeche. The short time over water reduces the chances of re-intensification. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and follows the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 16.5N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 16.8N 86.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 17.5N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0000Z 18.0N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/1200Z 18.5N 93.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/1200Z 19.0N 97.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm EARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2016-08-03 16:52:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 03 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 031452 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1500 UTC WED AUG 03 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) FRONTERA MX 34 X 5( 5) 15(20) 7(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MERIDA MX 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) COZUMEL MX 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BELIZE CITY 34 29 65(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) BELIZE CITY 50 3 50(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) BELIZE CITY 64 X 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 4 10(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GUANAJA 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GUANAJA 50 58 X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) GUANAJA 64 29 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm EARL (AT5/AL052016)
2016-08-03 16:52:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EARL NOT A HURRICANE YET BUT EXPECTED TO BE ONE VERY SOON... As of 11:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 3 the center of EARL was located near 16.5, -84.8 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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