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Hurricane EARL Public Advisory Number 6A
2016-08-04 01:47:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 032347 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 700 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016 ...RAIN BANDS OF EARL SPREADING OVER BELIZE... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 86.9W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. * Bay Islands, Honduras. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border. * North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 86.9 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will make landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is still possible before Earl reaches Belize tonight. Weakening will begin after the center of Earl moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas in a few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico tonight. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 16 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on the Bay Islands of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane EARL Graphics
2016-08-03 23:05:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Aug 2016 21:02:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Aug 2016 21:05:34 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane EARL (AT5/AL052016)
2016-08-03 22:57:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA PLANE FINDS THAT EARL IS NOW A HURRICANE... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 3 the center of EARL was located near 17.1, -86.0 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane EARL Update Statement
2016-08-03 22:57:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016 000 WTNT65 KNHC 032057 TCUAT5 HURRICANE EARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 400 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016 ...NOAA PLANE FINDS THAT EARL IS NOW A HURRICANE... A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft just reached Earl and measured maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h), indicating that Earl is now a hurricane. SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 86.0W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane EARL Forecast Discussion Number 6
2016-08-03 22:31:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 032031 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 400 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane which was recently in Earl did not measure any hurricane-force winds, and the satellite presentation has not changed much during the past few hours. The cloud pattern continues to have a couple of cyclonically curved convective bands with an intermittent banding type eye. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 60 kt in this advisory. The cyclone still has several hours over the warm waters of the Gulf of Honduras, and there are no apparent inhibiting factors to impede Earl to strengthen a little. The NHC forecast still calls for Earl to become a hurricane before landfall in Belize. NOAA and US Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes will be in the area later today. There has been no significant change in track, and the best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 280 degrees at 12 kt. Steering flow is very well established, and this pattern will continue to move Earl over Belize and the Yucatan peninsula. Earl is expected to be over water in the southern Bay of Campeche for only a few hours, reducing the chances of re-intensification there. Earl has become a larger system, and its hazards, primarily rainfall, will affect a large portion of Central America, the Yucatan peninsula and eastern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 17.1N 86.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 17.5N 87.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 18.0N 90.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0600Z 18.2N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/1800Z 18.5N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/1800Z 18.5N 97.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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