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Tropical Storm EARL Graphics
2016-08-03 01:59:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Aug 2016 23:59:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Aug 2016 21:05:39 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm EARL (AT5/AL052016)
2016-08-03 01:56:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EARL STRENGTHENING... As of 8:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 the center of EARL was located near 16.4, -82.3 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory Number 2A
2016-08-03 01:56:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 022356 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 ...EARL STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 82.3W ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. * Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border including the Bay Islands. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 82.3 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On this track, the core of Earl is expected to pass just north of the Honduras Bay Islands Wednesday afternoon, and then be very near the Belize coast early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Earl could be near hurricane strength as it approaches Belize and the Yucatan peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) to the north of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of Honduras by late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico and Belize within the warning area by Wednesday night or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions could begin in Mexico and Belize within the hurricane watch area Wednesday night or early Thursday. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over Jamaica. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm EARL Graphics
2016-08-02 23:05:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Aug 2016 20:36:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Aug 2016 21:05:39 GMT
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Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-08-02 22:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 022034 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 An Air Force reconnaissance plane investigated Earl a few hours ago and measured flight-level winds of about 54 kt in the northeast quadrant on its last leg. It also measured a minimal central pressure of 1002 mb. Another Air Force plane will be in Earl tonight along with the NOAA P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft. The satellite presentation has not changed significantly during the day, and Dvorak T-numbers, along with the plane data, yield an initial intensity of 45 kt. Global models have consistently forecast a little better environment, and the NHC forecast calls for some strengthening. Earl could be near hurricane strength as it approaches the Yucatan peninsula and Belize. It appears that Earl has slowed down as anticipated, and is now moving westward or 275 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is embedded within the deep easterly flow on the south side of a ridge. This flow pattern will continue to steer Earl on a general west to west-northwest track with a gradual decrease in forward speed across Belize and the Yucatan peninsula during the next 2 days or so. After that time, Earl will likely move over the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche where it could re-intensify some. There is good confidence with this track scenario, and the NHC forecast very closely follows the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 16.4N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 16.5N 83.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 17.0N 86.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 17.5N 88.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 18.0N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 05/1800Z 19.0N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 06/1800Z 20.0N 98.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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