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Hurricane EARL Forecast Discussion Number 7

2016-08-04 04:53:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 040253 TCDAT5 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1000 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016 Earl has been under close surveillance by Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter planes and the Belize Meteorological Service radar this evening. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 72 kt which converts to a surface wind of 65 kt, and this is used for the advisory intensity. Belize radar imagery shows that the eyewall has been fluctuating between an open and closed structure over the past several hours. There is little time left for Earl to strengthen before the center reaches the coast, and no significant intensification is anticipated before landfall. A steady weakening trend will commence after the tropical cyclone moves inland. Based on the latest track guidance, the center is forecast to only barely emerge into the extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Thursday, and this should limit reintensification at that time. Earl is expected to become a remnant low and dissipate over the high mountains of south-central Mexico by the weekend or sooner. Earl continues to move slightly north of due west or 280/13 kt. The cyclone remains embedded in a well-defined steering flow to the south of a large and slow-moving mid-tropospheric high pressure system. Little change has been made to the previous official forecast track and the current NHC forecast remains close to the multi-model consensus. After landfall, the biggest concern with Earl is rainfall. Global models depict the system becoming enveloped within a much larger-scale cyclonic gyre that will cover much of southern Mexico in a couple of days. This weather pattern will likely lead to copious rains, with isolated precipitation totals of 18 inches possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 17.4N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 17.7N 89.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0000Z 18.2N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1200Z 18.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/0000Z 18.8N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 07/0000Z 20.0N 98.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane EARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2016-08-04 04:53:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 04 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 040252 PWSAT5 HURRICANE EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 0300 UTC THU AUG 04 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VERACRUZ MX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) FRONTERA MX 34 1 12(13) 10(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) FRONTERA MX 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) BELIZE CITY 50 41 X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane EARL Public Advisory Number 7

2016-08-04 04:52:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 040252 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1000 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016 ...EARL NEARING THE COAST OF BELIZE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 87.6W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has discontinued all warnings for the coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Earl was located by an an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 87.6 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a westward or slightly north of westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will move inland over Belize within the next few hours, and move over the southern Yucatan peninsula of Mexico or northern Guatemala on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely before landfall, and Earl will begin to weaken after it moves inland over Belize on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas in a couple of hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico tonight. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches are possible in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane EARL Forecast Advisory Number 7

2016-08-04 04:52:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 04 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 040251 TCMAT5 HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 0300 UTC THU AUG 04 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND THE BAY ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO COSTA MAYA...MEXICO...SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 87.6W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 87.6W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 86.9W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.7N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.2N 91.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.5N 93.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.8N 95.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.0N 98.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 87.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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