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Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Advisory Number 5
2016-08-03 16:52:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 03 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 031452 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1500 UTC WED AUG 03 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO COSTA MAYA...MEXICO...SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER. * BAY ISLANDS...HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS FROM CABO GRACIAS A DIOS WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER. * NORTH OF PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 84.8W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 84.8W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 84.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.8N 86.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.5N 89.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.0N 91.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.5N 93.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.0N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 84.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory Number 5
2016-08-03 16:52:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 031452 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1100 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016 ...EARL NOT A HURRICANE YET BUT EXPECTED TO BE ONE VERY SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 84.8W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. * Bay Islands, Honduras. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border. * North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 84.8 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl is expected to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands this afternoon, and then make landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is currently investigating Earl and will determine if the cyclone has reached hurricane intensity. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 hours or so, and Earl is expected to be a little stronger by the time it reaches Belize. Weakening is expected after the center of Earl moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane was 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are probably already occuring along the north coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm warning area by tonight or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the Bay Islands of Honduras later today and in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico tonight or early Thursday. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 16 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on the Bay Island of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm EARL Graphics
2016-08-03 13:56:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Aug 2016 11:56:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Aug 2016 09:05:37 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm EARL (AT5/AL052016)
2016-08-03 13:55:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EARL ALMOST A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS... As of 8:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 3 the center of EARL was located near 16.3, -84.4 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory Number 4A
2016-08-03 13:55:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 031155 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 800 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016 CORRECTED FOR INTENSITY IN SUMMARY TABLE ...EARL ALMOST A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 84.4W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Bay Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. * Bay Islands, Honduras. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border. * North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 84.4 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl is expected to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands this afternoon, and then make landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Earl is likely to become a hurricane later today. Weakening is expected after the center of Earl moves inland. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating Earl. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure recently estimated by a NOAA Hurricane Hurricane aircraft was 989 mb (29.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands, this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm warning area by tonight or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the Bay Islands of Honduras later today and in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico tonight or early Thursday. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of 16 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the Honduras Bay Islands, Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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