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Hurricane Epsilon Graphics
2020-10-23 10:40:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Oct 2020 08:40:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Oct 2020 09:24:43 GMT
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-10-23 10:39:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 230838 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 Although Epsilon is moving over 25.5 deg C sea-surface temperatures (SST), the hurricane has continued to generate deep convection around the small 15-nmi-wide eye. Upper-level outflow also remains impressive in all quadrants, but especially in the northern semicircle where a pronounced poleward outflow channel has become established. The initial intensity remains at 75 kt based on a Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB yielding a Current Intensity (CI) number of T4.5/77 kt. The 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii were expanded based on recent ASCAT scatterometer wind data between 0100-0300 UTC. Epsilon is now moving northward, or 360/07 kt. The hurricane is forecast to continue moving northward today around the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge located east of the cyclone. On Saturday, Epsilon is expected to turn northeastward and accelerate ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and associated frontal system that will be moving off the U.S. east coast on Sunday. That motion will take Epsilon over increasingly cooler SSTs as low as 20 deg C by Sunday morning, resulting in extratropical transition by 60 h, if not sooner. The new NHC official track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the middle of the tightly packed simple- and corrected- consensus models. The current relatively low southerly vertical wind shear of about 10 kt is forecast to gradually increase to more than 20 kt by this evening. Although Epsilon will be moving over a modestly warm oceanic eddy today, which could result in some brief restrengthening of the cyclone, the official intensity forecast calls for the intensity to remain steady for the next 36 h, followed by slow weakening thereafter due to the hurricane moving over near-20 deg C SSTs by 48 hours. By 60 hours, the global models and the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance indicate that Epsilon will have undergone extratropical transition over the far north Atlantic. Afterward, the global models continue to show Epsilon getting absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone at the higher latitudes, resulting in a very powerful low developing with a central pressure near 940 mb. That low then moves eastward, possibly menacing northern Europe by the middle of next week. The forecast wind radii, which show the cyclone expanding over the next few days, are in good agreement with the dynamical consensus radii guidance, RVCN. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 33.1N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 34.7N 61.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 36.7N 61.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 38.8N 58.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 42.0N 54.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 46.0N 45.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 26/0600Z 49.9N 34.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2020-10-23 10:35:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 230834 PWSAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0900 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) X(26) X(26) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
2020-10-23 10:34:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EPSILON MOVING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Oct 23 the center of Epsilon was located near 33.1, -61.6 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 18
2020-10-23 10:34:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 230834 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 ...EPSILON MOVING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 61.6W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- t 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 61.6 West. Epsilon is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A generally northward motion with increasing forward speed is expected through early Saturday, with an even faster motion toward the northeast later that day. The center of Epsilon will continue to move away from Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength could occur for the next day or so before gradual weakening begins on Saturday. Epsilon remains a large storm system. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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