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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-10-03 04:38:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 030238 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 Although Marie still has an impressive and very symetric appearance, cloud tops associated with the huricane have gradually warmed since this afternoon and its eye became less well-defined for a brief period earlier this evening. The cause of this recent trend is not immediately clear since Marie is still located within a favorable low-shear, high SST environment, and two microwave passses near 00Z (SSMIS and SSMI) did not show any sign of an eyewall replacement cycle. Whatever the reason, it has caused intensity estimates to decrease a little since the last advisory, but not enough to justify lowering the intensity at this time. The intial intensity therefore remains 115 kt for this advisory. With a range of estimates from 90 kt to 127 kt, there is a lot of uncertainty in this assessment. Although Marie is located in a favorable environment for now, that won't last much longer. The hurricane is moving toward colder waters and it should begin to experience a large increase in wind shear within the next day or so. The guidance unsurprisingly forecasts that weakening will occur, possibly at a very rapid rate. The NHC forecast is on the high side of the intensity guidance, but still shows Marie becoming a tropical storm within 60 h and a depression by the end of the 5 day period. No changes of note were made to the offficial intensity forecast. Marie has turned northwestward, and should continue on that general heading for most of the weekend as it moves along the southwest periphary of a mid-level ridge. A slight expansion of the ridge could steer Marie more west-northwestward for a day or two after that. Around day 5, a large deep-layer trough should cause the cyclone to turn nearly northward. While there is considerable spread in the track guidance, limiting confidence in the specifics of the track forecast, every global model forecasts that general evolution. The NHC track forecast is very close to the model consensus and the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 17.5N 125.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 18.3N 126.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 19.2N 127.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 20.0N 128.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 20.6N 129.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 21.1N 131.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 21.6N 132.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 22.5N 134.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 24.0N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-10-03 04:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 030237 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 8 5(13) 3(16) 1(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 1 13(14) 48(62) 15(77) 4(81) X(81) X(81) 20N 130W 50 X 1( 1) 18(19) 18(37) 4(41) X(41) X(41) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 5(15) 2(17) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-03 04:37:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POWERFUL MARIE TURNS NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 the center of Marie was located near 17.5, -125.7 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 16
2020-10-03 04:37:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 030237 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 ...POWERFUL MARIE TURNS NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 125.7W ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 125.7 West. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through most of the weekend. A turn toward the west-northwest is possible by early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible through tonight, followed by weakening beginning on Saturday. This weakening trend will continue into early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-10-03 04:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 030236 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.7W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.7W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 125.4W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.3N 126.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.2N 127.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 128.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.6N 129.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.1N 131.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.6N 132.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 134.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 24.0N 136.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 125.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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