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Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-03 16:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POWERFUL MARIE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 3 the center of Marie was located near 18.4, -126.9 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 18
2020-10-03 16:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 289 WTPZ33 KNHC 031435 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...POWERFUL MARIE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 126.9W ABOUT 1140 MI...1835 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 126.9 West. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with little change in speed is expected to continue through early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane is expected to begin weakening later today, and a more rapid weakening trend is forecast into early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-10-03 16:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 031434 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 126.9W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 270SW 345NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 126.9W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 126.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.1N 127.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 128.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.6N 129.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.2N 131.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 95NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.9N 132.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N 133.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.5N 135.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 24.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 126.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
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Hurricane Marie Graphics
2020-10-03 10:40:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 08:40:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 08:40:06 GMT
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-10-03 10:38:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 122 WTPZ43 KNHC 030838 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 Marie continues to be a powerful and dangerous hurricane. Cloud tops surrounding the eye have cooled and the center is now surrounded by a ring of convection with tops colder than -70 degrees C. The latest Dvorak intensity estimate ranges have narrowed considerably to 115-122 kt, so there is higher confidence in the cyclone's strength. The initial advisory intensity is being kept at 115 kt and is in agreement with both of the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The environment surrounding Marie will soon become rather hostile and the hurricane will likely not maintain this intensity for much longer. By later today, increasing southwesterly winds aloft should begin to degrade the symmetry of the cyclone. Later tonight, the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 degree C SST isotherm. And by Monday, Marie is expected be in an environment characterized by vertical wind shear greater than 30 kt, low- to mid-level relative humidity values of less than 40 percent, and over waters cooler than 25 degrees C. These increasingly negative factors are expected to cause Marie to begin weakening later today, with rapid weakening possible Sunday into Monday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the various consensus intensity guidance, and indicates that Marie should weaken to a tropical storm on Sunday night and a tropical depression early next week. By the end of the forecast period, the system is expected to become a post tropical cyclone devoid of deep convection. Marie continues to move northwestward and is forecast to continue to do so through the remainder of the weekend as it moves along the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge. The ridge is forecast to expand westward early next week, which should force the cyclone to turn to the west-northwest. Toward the end of the 5-day forecast period, a large deep-layer trough north of Marie should cause it to begin a turn to the right. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 17.9N 126.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 18.6N 127.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 19.5N 128.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 20.3N 129.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 20.9N 130.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 21.5N 131.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 22.0N 133.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 23.0N 135.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 24.5N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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