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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 23
2020-10-04 22:31:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 042031 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 129.5W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 270SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 129.5W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 129.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.7N 130.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.4N 131.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 133.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.7N 134.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.3N 135.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.7N 136.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 24.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 24.0N 140.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 129.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Marie Graphics
2020-10-04 16:46:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2020 14:46:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2020 14:46:46 GMT
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 22
2020-10-04 16:45:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 041445 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 Conventional satellite imagery reveals an increasingly apparent asymmetric/vertical tilt due to persistent west-southwesterly shear. The surface center is beginning to become exposed and is now near the western edge of the deep convective mass. The initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt for this advisory and is based on a compromise of the available subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Weakening should continue rather quickly through the forecast period while the shear magnitude increases with time and the cyclone traverses cooler oceanic surface temperatures. Marie should degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low in 3 days, or less, and this is in agreement with the majority of the global/regional and statistical guidance. The intensity forecast is near the IVCN intensity consensus and above the ECMWF and GFS Decay SHIPS which actually show dissipation in less than 4 days. Maria's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 315/6 kt, within the mid-tropospheric steering flow provided by a subtropical ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone. Marie should continue moving in either a west-northwestward or northwestward motion through the remainder of forecast period with some reduction in forward speed, day 3 and beyond. The NHC forecast track has been adjusted a little bit south of the previous advisory after the 24 hour period in order to be closer to the various multi-model consensus aids and to conform more with a motion typical of a shallower, vertically limited system moving through the trade wind flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 20.3N 128.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 20.7N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 21.3N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 22.0N 132.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 22.7N 133.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 23.4N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 24.0N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z 24.8N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1200Z 25.3N 137.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-04 16:44:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE WEAKENS SOME MORE OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Oct 4 the center of Marie was located near 20.3, -128.6 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 22
2020-10-04 16:44:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 041444 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...MARIE WEAKENS SOME MORE OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 128.6W ABOUT 1215 MI...1950 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 128.6 West. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). The hurricane is forecast to move generally northwestward or west-northwestward during the next several days with some reduction in forward speed commencing Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie should quickly weaken to a tropical storm by Monday night, and further weaken to a depression by Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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