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Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-03 10:37:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POWERFUL MARIE CONTINUES CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 3 the center of Marie was located near 17.9, -126.4 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 17
2020-10-03 10:37:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 030837 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 ...POWERFUL MARIE CONTINUES CHURNING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 126.4W ABOUT 1120 MI...1805 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 126.4 West. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through the weekend. A turn to the west-northwest is expected by Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane is forecast to begin weakening later today, and this weakening trend should continue into early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-10-03 10:37:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 030837 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 5 3( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 130W 34 1 30(31) 41(72) 9(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) 20N 130W 50 X 3( 3) 24(27) 13(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-10-03 10:37:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 030837 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 126.4W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 240SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 126.4W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 126.1W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.6N 127.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.5N 128.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.3N 129.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.9N 130.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.5N 131.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 133.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 135.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 24.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 126.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Marie Graphics
2020-10-03 04:39:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 02:39:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 03 Oct 2020 03:33:05 GMT
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