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Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-04 10:33:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE CONTINUES WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Oct 4 the center of Marie was located near 20.1, -128.1 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 21
2020-10-04 10:33:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 040833 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...MARIE CONTINUES WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 128.1W ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 128.1 West. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). The hurricane is forecast to move generally northwestward or west-northwestward with little change in forward speed for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie should quickly weaken to a tropical storm by early Monday, with further weakening likely through the middle of the week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-10-04 10:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 040832 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 128.1W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 110SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 330SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 128.1W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 127.9W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.5N 129.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N 130.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.7N 131.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.4N 133.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.2N 134.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.0N 135.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 24.9N 136.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 26.0N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 128.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-10-04 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040233 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 PM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 Marie crossed the 26 degree SST isotherm earlier this evening and the cold waters and accompanying dry,stable air are having a big impact on the storm. Recent microwave imagery shows that the hurricane no longer has an closed eyewall in the southern portion of its inner core. Furthermore, cloud top temperatures have warmed and the hurricane's eye is barely discernible. A blend of Final-T and CI Dvorak numbers from TAFB is the primary basis for the initial intensity of 100 kt. Continued rapid weakening is anticipated for the next 36 to 48 h as Marie encounters very hostile environmental conditions. After that time, continued weakening is likely and most of the dynamical models indicate that the cyclone will lose its convection by around day 5, if not a little sooner. The hurricane is moving northwestward near 7 kt. A ridge extending westward from southwestern U.S. should keep Marie moving generally west-northwestward or northwestward at about the same forward speed for the next several days. Near the end of the forecast period, Marie will likely turn northward ahead of a deep layer trough approaching from the northwest. The spread in the track guidance is quite low, and confidence in the track forecast is fairly high, particularly since almost no change was made to the previous advisory forecast. Both the track and intensity forecasts are based on the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 19.5N 127.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 20.2N 128.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.9N 130.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 21.6N 131.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 22.3N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 22.9N 133.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 23.7N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 24.7N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 26.0N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Marie Graphics
2020-10-04 04:32:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2020 02:32:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Oct 2020 03:33:06 GMT
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