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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-09-30 22:41:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 302041 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 21 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 120W 34 X 92(92) 5(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 15N 120W 50 X 62(62) 15(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) 15N 120W 64 X 34(34) 19(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 42(51) 5(56) 1(57) X(57) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 14(20) 3(23) X(23) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 35(67) 3(70) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 25(33) 2(35) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 1(18) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 12(24) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-09-30 22:39:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE BECOMES THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE 2020 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 the center of Marie was located near 14.3, -115.1 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 7
2020-09-30 22:39:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 302039 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020 ...MARIE BECOMES THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE 2020 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 115.1W ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 115.1 West. Marie is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest with decreasing forward speed. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Marie is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday with additional strengthening thereafter. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-09-30 22:37:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 302037 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 115.1W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 210SE 180SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 115.1W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 114.4W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.4N 117.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.8N 120.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.6N 122.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.6N 124.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.7N 126.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.6N 128.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.3N 131.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.8N 134.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 115.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 42
2020-09-22 22:55:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 222054 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 Teddy is a very impressive cyclone on satellite images this afternoon, even from full-disk images. The hurricane's circulation is over 1000 miles wide, with an enormous distinct comma shape and frontal features especially in the eastern semicircle. As far as what to call the system convection has actually deepened near the center during the past several hours, and an AMSR pass around 1700 UTC showed that the system still had a low-level eye feature. For that reason and for simplicity's sake, the system will remain a hurricane on this advisory, although it is obviously a hybrid low with many characteristics of a non-tropical cyclone. The initial wind speed is lowered to 80 kt, assuming the filling trend reported by the last NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission continued. The wind radii are expanded based on ASCAT data, with tropical-storm-force winds over eastern Nova Scotia already. The hurricane is forecast to transition into a post-tropical cyclone later tonight or early tomorrow due to the cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream likely weakening any central convection. Teddy should decay below hurricane-strength before reaching Nova Scotia and steadily weaken as it moves over the even colder waters in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The new intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and is closest to the GFS model. Teddy is moving northward now and should turn north-northeastward tomorrow ahead of the next trough in the mid-latitudes. This will take Post-Tropical Teddy over Nova Scotia and near Newfoundland during the next couple of days, with the cyclone likely being absorbed into a larger extratropical cyclone west of Greenland in 2-3 days. There are no significant changes to report, though there has been a slight westward shift of the track near Newfoundland. The hazards from Teddy are extending at quite a distance from the center of this hurricane. In addition to the 500-mile wind radii in the northeastern quadrant, Canadian buoy 44150 has recently reported 42 ft (13 m) significant wave heights, with the buoy still about 90 n mi from the center. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada late today through Thursday. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy is large destructive waves forecast along the southern coast of Nova Scotia through Wednesday. 2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 41.1N 64.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 43.1N 63.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 23/1800Z 47.0N 60.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 24/0600Z 51.5N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/1800Z 56.5N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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