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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 39
2020-09-22 04:47:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 220247 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND TEDDY STRONGER... ...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.6N 61.5W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Meat Cove to Tidnish * North of Digby to Fort Lawrence * Magdalen Islands * Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland * Prince Edward Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be required on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 61.5 West. Teddy is moving toward the north near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this motion is expected overnight followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday. Teddy should turn toward the north-northeast and move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday then over the Gulf of St. Lawrence late Wednesday into Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy could gain a little more strength overnight, but should weaken steadily by Wednesday and become a strong post-tropical cyclone near Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas late Tuesday or early Wednesday. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39
2020-09-22 04:47:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 220247 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 10(10) 21(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 12(12) 43(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 17(17) 48(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 4( 4) 54(58) 12(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) 14(14) 10(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X 1( 1) 48(49) 26(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) 10(10) 22(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 28(28) 49(77) 2(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 32(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X 21(21) 36(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 15(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MONCTON NB 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST JOHN NB 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) EASTPORT ME 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BERMUDA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Teddy Graphics
2020-09-22 01:57:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 23:57:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 21:25:50 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-22 01:53:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TEDDY ACCELERATING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA... As of 8:00 PM AST Mon Sep 21 the center of Teddy was located near 34.6, -61.4 with movement N at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 38A
2020-09-22 01:53:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 212353 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 38A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 800 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020 ...TEDDY ACCELERATING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.6N 61.4W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 7 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Meat Cove to Tidnish * North of Digby to Fort Lawrence * Magdalen Islands * Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland * Prince Edward Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be required later tonight or on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 61.4 West. Teddy is moving toward the north near 26 mph (43 km/h), and this motion is expected tonight followed by a turn to the north-northwest on Tuesday. Teddy should turn to the north-northeast and move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday then over the Gulf of St. Lawrence late Wednesday into Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is expected to gain some strength overnight, but weaken steadily by Wednesday and become a strong post-tropical cyclone before reaching Nova Scotia. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical-storm-conditions could begin in the watch areas late Tuesday or early Wednesday. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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