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Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-01 04:49:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY FRIDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 the center of Marie was located near 14.5, -116.5 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 8
2020-10-01 04:49:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 010249 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020 ...MARIE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 116.5W ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 116.5 West. Marie is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest with decreasing forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Marie is expected to become a major hurricane by Friday with some additional strengthening thereafter. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-10-01 04:49:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 010249 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 116.5W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 210SE 150SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 116.5W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 115.8W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.7N 118.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.3N 121.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.2N 123.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.2N 125.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.2N 127.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.1N 129.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 131.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 22.6N 134.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 116.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Marie Graphics
2020-09-30 22:48:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2020 20:48:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Sep 2020 20:48:55 GMT
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-30 22:44:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 302044 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Marie has continued to become better organized today, with a well-defined convective band that wraps more than completely around the cloud system center. This yields a Dvorak intensity estimate of at least 65 kt, and subjective and objective T-numbers from SAB and UW-CIMSS respectively also correspond to an intensity of 65 kt. Therefore, the system is being upgraded to a hurricane, which is the first for the month of September in this relatively quiet eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The vertical wind shear has decreased and is forecast to remain low for the next few days. This, combined with a moist low- to mid-tropospheric air mass and warm sea surface temperatures, should lead to an environment that is very conducive for strengthening. In fact, the SHIPS RI Index shows a significant probability of rapid intensification over the next 24 hours. Therefore, the official forecast calls for Marie to become a major hurricane tomorrow with additional strengthening during the succeeding day. This is close to the predictions from the two corrected consensus techniques, HCCA and FSSE. By 72 hours, Marie should have begun passing over progressively cooler waters, so a steady weakening trend is likely to be underway by that time. The motion continues just north of due west, or 275/14 kt. The track forecast reasoning hasn't changed much from the previous advisories. Over the next few days, the hurricane should be steered on a westward to west-northwestward course on the south side of a mid-level subtropical ridge. Right around the end of the forecast period, Marie should begin to turn more to the right in response to a weakness in the ridge. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies between the simple and corrected dynamical consensus predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 14.3N 115.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 14.4N 117.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 14.8N 120.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 15.6N 122.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 16.6N 124.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 17.7N 126.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 18.6N 128.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 20.3N 131.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 21.8N 134.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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