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Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-02 04:34:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 1 the center of Marie was located near 15.6, -122.1 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 12
2020-10-02 04:34:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 020234 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 ...MARIE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 122.1W ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 122.1 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest or northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2020-10-02 04:34:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 020234 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 6 19(25) 1(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 125W 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 4(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 45(53) 31(84) 1(85) X(85) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 33(50) 1(51) X(51) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) X(28) X(28) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) 2(26) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-10-02 04:34:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 020233 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 122.1W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 110SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 122.1W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 121.5W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.3N 123.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.3N 125.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 127.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.4N 128.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.2N 130.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.8N 131.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 22.0N 134.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 23.4N 136.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 122.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Marie Graphics
2020-10-01 22:46:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2020 20:46:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2020 20:46:41 GMT
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