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Hurricane Marie Graphics
2020-10-02 22:43:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 02 Oct 2020 20:43:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 02 Oct 2020 20:43:32 GMT
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-10-02 22:41:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 022041 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 Marie remains a powerful hurricane this afternoon. A 1530 UTC SSMIS 91 GHz microwave image showed a well-defined, closed eyewall with a 20 nm eye, which is still evident in recent GOES-17 visible and infrared satellite imagery. The initial intensity is held at 115 kt based on T6.0 Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, which are consistent with recent ADT and earlier SATCON estimates. The 34-kt radii are expanded slightly with this package based on recent ASCAT data. Marie is moving west-northwestward (295 degrees) at 10 kt, around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. A break in the ridge should allow Marie to turn northwestward within the next 24 hours and maintain that motion over the next several days. By day 5, an approaching upper-level trough moving across the eastern Pacific Ocean should turn Marie more toward the north-northwest. There is still more noticeable spread in the guidance at days 4 and 5, likely related to differences in the amplitude of the upper-level trough. It is worth noting that the GFS depicts a deeper upper trough, and thus a more drastic northerly turn, than the rest of the global models. Overall, the NHC forecast was again slowed down a bit and shifted slightly to the right to align better with the latest TVCE multi-model consensus and HCCA aids. Marie is expected to remain in a low-shear environment with sea surface temperatures of 26 degrees Celsius for the next 18-24 hours. Although slight additional strengthening cannot be ruled out, the storm is running out of time before environmental conditions become more hostile. After 24 hours, increasing deep-layer southwesterly shear and cooler waters should support a steady weakening trend through the rest of the forecast period. Marie is expected to fall below hurricane strength by 60 hours and become a tropical depression by day 5. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly faster weakening trend and remains very close to the IVCN consensus and the HCCA aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 16.9N 125.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 17.6N 126.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 18.6N 127.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 19.5N 128.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 20.1N 129.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 20.6N 130.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 21.2N 132.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 22.0N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 23.5N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-10-02 22:40:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 022040 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC FRI OCT 02 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 3 9(12) 4(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 34 X 5( 5) 43(48) 27(75) 9(84) X(84) X(84) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) 10(10) 24(34) 10(44) X(44) X(44) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 7(22) X(22) X(22) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) 2(19) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-02 22:39:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE MARIE HOLDING STEADY IN INTENSITY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Oct 2 the center of Marie was located near 16.9, -125.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 15
2020-10-02 22:39:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 022039 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 ...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE MARIE HOLDING STEADY IN INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 125.0W ABOUT 1065 MI...1710 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 125.0 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest or northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Marie is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible through tonight, followed by weakening beginning on Saturday. This weakening trend will continue into early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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