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Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 10
2020-10-01 16:36:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 011436 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 ...MARIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 119.5W ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 119.5 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion with decreasing forward speed is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Marie is expected to become a major hurricane by tonight or sooner. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Marie Graphics
2020-10-01 10:38:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2020 08:38:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2020 09:25:19 GMT
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-10-01 10:35:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 010835 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 Recent microwave data and satellite images indicate that Marie has become much better organized over the past several hours, with a nearly completely closed eye noted in a 0451Z AMSU composite microwave overpass. The initial intensity has been increased to 80 kt, based on a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMMS ADT and SATCON. Marie appears to have resumed its anticipated rapid intensification (RI), and this RI should continue for the next day or so while the hurricane remains in an environment of very low vertical wind shear while over warm waters. After 48 h, the cyclone is forecast to begin moving over progressively cooler waters, while encountering increasing vertical wind shear and a drier, more stable atmospheric environment. These factors should cause Marie to begin weakening by Saturday. Rapid weakening could occur by late this weekend when the cyclone is expected to be over waters with SSTs cooler than 26 degrees C while vertical wind shear becomes greater than 25 kt. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very close to the HFIP corrected consensus aid HCCA and the DSHP guidance. The initial motion is 280/15 kt. Marie is forecast to continue moving westward around a subtropical ridge to its north and northeast for the next 12 to 24 hours. A gradual turn to the west-northwest along with a decrease in forward speed is expected to occur beginning later tonight as the ridge weakens slightly. By late in the forecast period, a turn to the northwest should occur as Maria reaches a break in the ridge. The models are generally in good agreement on this scenario, but vary somewhat in how sharp of a turn to the right Marie makes later on in the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies near the various track consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 14.8N 118.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 15.2N 120.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 16.0N 122.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 16.9N 125.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 18.0N 126.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 19.0N 128.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 19.8N 130.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 21.1N 132.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 23.0N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-01 10:34:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Oct 1 the center of Marie was located near 14.8, -118.1 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 9
2020-10-01 10:34:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 233 WTPZ33 KNHC 010834 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 ...MARIE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 118.1W ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 118.1 West. Marie is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest with decreasing forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Marie is expected to become a major hurricane by tonight with some additional strengthening possible through Friday. Marie is then forecast to begin weakening this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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