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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-10-01 10:34:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 010834 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 50 87 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 15N 120W 64 54 6(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) 15N 125W 34 X 4( 4) 31(35) 2(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 64(70) 9(79) 1(80) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 10(47) X(47) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 6(26) X(26) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 8(29) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-10-01 10:34:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 269 WTPZ23 KNHC 010834 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0900 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 118.1W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 118.1W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 117.4W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.2N 120.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.0N 122.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.9N 125.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.0N 126.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.0N 128.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.8N 130.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N 132.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 23.0N 135.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 118.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Marie Graphics
2020-10-01 04:51:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2020 02:51:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 01 Oct 2020 02:51:41 GMT
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-10-01 04:50:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 010250 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 30 2020 Passive microwave satellite data and satellite intensity estimates indicate that Marie has undergone a brief intensity hiatus since the previous advisory. Date from the 2055Z AMSR and 2306Z SSMI microwave passes indicated that the earlier eye feature has eroded some and opened up on the east side due to dry air entrainment and modest easterly vertical wind shear of about 10 kt. The initial intensity is being held at 65 kt based on subjective Dvorak classifications of T4.0/65 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates of T4.1/67 kt and 62 kt from ADT and SATCON, respectively. The motion estimate is 280/14 kt. The latest NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement through about 96 h on Marie moving west-northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge located to the north of the cyclone. Thereafter, there is considerable divergence in the guidance with the ECMWF and UKMET taking Marie more westward, while the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models take the hurricane northward into a break in the ridge; the latter scenario is preferred by the various simple and corrected consensus models. As a result, no significant changes were required to the previous forecast, and the new forecast track essentially lies down the model of the tightly packed consensus model envelope. Although the eyewall has eroded somewhat, the small inner-core wind field still appears to be intact based on low-level cloud features seen in 36-37 GHz satellite imagery. Once the narrow dry air intrusions mix out in about 6 hours or so, rapid intensification (RI) should resume and continue through 48 hours while the shear gradually decreases to near zero by then. By 60 hours and continuing through the remainder of the forecast period, cooler sea-surface temperatures, along with cold upwelling generated by Marie, should cause the hurricane to weaken, with rapid weakening likely beginning by 72 hours when significant southwesterly vertical wind shear kicks in ahead of a deep-layer trough that will be moving eastward out of the central Pacific. The new official intensity forecast is essentially identical to the previous NHC forecast, and lies along the extreme upper end of the intensity guidance, about midway between the Navy COAMPS-TC model (CTCI) and the NOAA-HCCA corrected-consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 14.5N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 14.7N 118.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 15.3N 121.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 16.2N 123.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 17.2N 125.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 18.2N 127.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 19.1N 129.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 20.7N 131.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 22.6N 134.3W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-10-01 04:50:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 010250 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 5 93(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 120W 50 X 81(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) 15N 120W 64 X 58(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 27(28) 19(47) 1(48) X(48) 1(49) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 11(21) 1(22) X(22) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 48(49) 21(70) 1(71) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 17(35) 1(36) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 1(16) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 9(22) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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