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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-10-01 22:43:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 012043 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 An eye has formed in visible and infrared satellite imagery since the issuance of the previous advisory, and the surrounding convection continues to have cold cloud tops (as cold as -83C). The width of the coldest tops were a little thin on the southwest side at 1800 UTC, and because of this, subjective and objective intensity estimates were still 90 kt. Since that time, the eye has become more distinct and the convection is becoming more symmetric around the eye, and the initial intensity is therefore set at 95 kt. Marie's initial position has been adjusted to the south just a bit now that the center is more apparent with the eye formation. This yields a current westward motion of 280/14 kt. The atmospheric features responsible for steering Marie during the forecast period will be a mid-tropospheric ridge centered over the southwestern United States and a mid- to upper-level low located to the west over the Pacific. The interplay between these features is likely to cause some wiggles in Marie's future track, but for the most part the hurricane will be moving west-northwestward or northwestward through day 5. The spread in the guidance increases toward the end of the forecast period, with the GFS turning more northward and the ECMWF maintaining a west-northwestward motion. The other deterministic models are in between these two solutions, clustered very close to the various multi-model consensus aids, and that is where the NHC forecast also lies for this advisory. The environment appears conducive for this phase of rapid intensification to continue, at least for the next 24 hours. Deep-layer shear is just about to decrease to 10 kt or less, and Marie will remain over waters of high ocean heat content for the next 24-36 hours. The intensity guidance decreased a bit on this cycle, which seems odd given the ongoing intensification trend and the favorable environmental conditions. The SHIPS model does still show that the chance for rapid intensification to continue is 3 to 5 times higher than the climatological mean, and therefore the NHC intensity forecast maintains continuity from the previous advisory, showing a peak intensity of 120 kt. This forecast is above the highest intensity models by about 10-15 kt. Weakening is still anticipated, particularly after 48 hours, due to Marie moving over cooler waters and being affected by increasing southwesterly shear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 15.1N 120.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 15.8N 122.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 16.7N 125.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 17.8N 126.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 18.8N 128.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 19.7N 129.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 20.3N 130.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 21.4N 133.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 23.0N 136.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-01 22:42:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE STILL STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE VERY SOON... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 1 the center of Marie was located near 15.1, -120.9 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 11
2020-10-01 22:42:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 012042 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 ...MARIE STILL STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE VERY SOON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 120.9W ABOUT 895 MI...1445 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 120.9 West. Marie is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest and then northwest and a gradually decreasing forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or two. Weakening is forecast to begin by Friday night or Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-10-01 22:42:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 012042 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 34 1 42(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) 15N 125W 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 49(80) 3(83) X(83) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 39(46) 2(48) X(48) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 1(26) X(26) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) 4(30) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-10-01 22:42:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 012041 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC THU OCT 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 120.9W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 110SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 120.9W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 120.3W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.8N 122.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.7N 125.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.8N 126.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.8N 128.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.7N 129.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.3N 130.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.4N 133.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 136.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 120.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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