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Hurricane INGRID Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

2013-09-15 04:43:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 150242 PWSAT5 HURRICANE INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 2 7 33 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X X 7 22 39 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 4 11 43 56 20 NA NA HURRICANE 96 89 48 15 8 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 71 51 34 10 5 NA NA HUR CAT 2 23 30 10 4 2 NA NA HUR CAT 3 2 7 3 1 1 NA NA HUR CAT 4 X 1 X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 80KT 85KT 85KT 50KT 30KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 2 14(16) 5(21) 2(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LA PESCO MX 34 1 19(20) 52(72) 5(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) LA PESCO MX 50 X 3( 3) 22(25) 4(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) LA PESCO MX 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TAMPICO MX 34 2 18(20) 46(66) 4(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) TAMPICO MX 50 X 3( 3) 18(21) 6(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) TUXPAN MX 34 2 4( 6) 10(16) 4(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) TUXPAN MX 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) VERACRUZ MX 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Summary for Hurricane INGRID (AT5/AL102013)

2013-09-15 04:42:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...INGRID A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON MONDAY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 the center of INGRID was located near 22.0, -95.0 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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Hurricane INGRID Public Advisory Number 11

2013-09-15 04:42:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 150242 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 ...INGRID A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 95.0W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES...AND HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD FROM BAHIA ALGODONES TO RIO SAN FERNANDO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO * SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF INGRID. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... INGRID SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. NOAA BUOY 42055 LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES...110 KM... NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF INGRID RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 42 MPH...68 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 49 MPH...79 KM/H. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA EARLY MONDAY. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Hurricane INGRID Forecast Advisory Number 11

2013-09-15 04:41:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 150241 TCMAT5 HURRICANE INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES...AND HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD FROM BAHIA ALGODONES TO RIO SAN FERNANDO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO * SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF INGRID. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 95.0W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 95.0W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 94.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.4N 95.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 23.0N 96.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 23.0N 97.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.7N 98.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.0N 99.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 95.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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