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Summary for Hurricane CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)
2014-08-26 13:54:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA TOMORROW... As of 8:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 26 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 26.5, -72.0 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Graphics
2014-08-26 11:11:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2014 08:37:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2014 09:05:47 GMT
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-08-26 10:37:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 260837 TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 As indicated by my predecessor, Cristobal's cloud pattern is not typical of a hurricane on IR images. The convection is quite linear and the system appears to be embedded within the tail of a frontal zone. However, an reconnaissance planes recently measured winds of 73 kt at flight level and a minimum central pressure of 987 mb. This supports an initial intensity of 65 knots. Most of the global models intensify the cyclone, and given that the shear is gradually decreasing, the NHC forecast calls for some strengthening at a rate very close to the latest intensity consensus model ICON. By day 4, Cristobal is expected to be over cooler waters losing tropical characteristics. Cristobal has been meandering during the past 12 hours or more, but recently, it has begun to move toward the north at about 10 knots. The cyclone is located at the base of a narrow mid-latitude trough, and squeezed between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and a high pressure over the United States. Most of the global models show that the flow around the western side of the Atlantic ridge will steer the cyclone northward for the next 36 hours or so. Cristobal will then encounter the mid-latitude westerlies and turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed. The guidance in general shifted slightly to the west in the latest run due to a small expansion of the Atlantic ridge. The NHC track forecast was also adjusted slightly westward during the next 24 to 36 hours, following the multi-model consensus, and placed very close to the consensus between the EMCWF and the GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 26.0N 71.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 28.1N 71.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 30.6N 71.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 32.6N 70.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 35.0N 68.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 41.0N 55.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 48.0N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/0600Z 57.0N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2014-08-26 10:36:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 260836 PWSAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0900 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 5(27) X(27) X(27) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 11
2014-08-26 10:36:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 260836 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 ...CRISTOBAL MOVING NORTHWARD A LITTLE FASTER... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 71.9W ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS TODAY...AND PASS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION TO ONGOING RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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