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Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Advisory Number 4
2015-05-29 04:33:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 290232 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 0300 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 113.3W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 113.3W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 12.5N 114.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.5N 115.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.4N 116.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.3N 116.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.7N 118.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 17.5N 121.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 18.0N 124.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 113.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm ANDRES Graphics
2015-05-28 23:03:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 28 May 2015 20:38:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 28 May 2015 21:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-05-28 22:37:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 282036 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 300 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015 The satellite presentation of Andres continues to improve, with a band of convection now wrapping about three-quarters of the way around the center. A recent ASCAT pass revealed maximum winds of about 50 kt, so the initial intensity has been increased accordingly. The scatterometer data also provided a better estimate of the size of the tropical cyclone wind field, and the tropical-storm-force wind radii have been adjusted outward. The satellite data indicate that the center is located a bit southwest of the previous estimate, but the overall initial motion remains west-northwest or 295 degrees at 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from before. Andres should move west- northwestward to northwestward around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge extending westward over the eastern Pacific from central Mexico. The 1200 UTC global models show more ridging to the north of Andres late in the period than previous runs, which has resulted in a westward shift in the track guidance. The NHC forecast has been adjusted westward, but it lies along the right side of the guidance envelope. Environmental conditions consisting of warm water and low shear should allow for continued steady strengthening during the next couple of days. Although the latest SHIPS RI index shows a lower chance of rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours than this morning, it would not be surprising if rapid intensification occurred. The NHC forecast is near the upper end of the intensity guidance and is closest to the SHIPS model. After 72 hours, Andres should begin to weaken when it encounters slightly cooler sea surface temperatures and a drier and more stable airmass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 11.6N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 12.3N 113.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 13.1N 114.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 13.9N 115.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 14.9N 116.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 16.5N 117.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 18.0N 122.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)
2015-05-28 22:36:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANDRES QUICKLY STRENGTHENS... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu May 28 the center of ANDRES was located near 11.6, -112.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Advisory Number 3
2015-05-28 22:36:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU MAY 28 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 282036 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 2100 UTC THU MAY 28 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 112.5W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 112.5W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 112.1W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.3N 113.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.1N 114.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.9N 115.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.9N 116.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.5N 117.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 18.0N 122.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 112.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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