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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Advisory Number 12
2015-05-31 04:46:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN MAY 31 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 310246 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 0300 UTC SUN MAY 31 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 116.8W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......140NE 140SE 70SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 116.8W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 116.6W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.6N 117.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.1N 119.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.5N 120.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.0N 122.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.4N 125.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 19.3N 128.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 19.3N 130.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 116.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane ANDRES Graphics
2015-05-30 23:03:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 30 May 2015 20:38:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 30 May 2015 21:03:45 GMT
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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 11
2015-05-30 22:37:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 302037 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015 Andres' cloud pattern has not changed much during the last several hours. The eye of the hurricane remains evident in visible and infrared satellite images, but it has been occasionally obscured by high-level clouds. Recent microwave data show that the western side of the eyewall has eroded slightly, which is likely the result of northwesterly shear and drier air that is wrapping into that side of the circulation. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT are all 5.0/90 kt, and accordingly, the initial wind speed is held at that value. Andres continues on a northwestward track at about 6 kt toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The models are in agreement that the hurricane should turn west-northwestward tonight or early Sunday when the ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. The 12Z GFS solution has changed considerably from the previous cycle, and now shows Andres stalling and then moving eastward in the 96-120 hour time frame in response to a mid- to upper-level trough. That model is considered an outlier as it is likely keeping Andres too deep over cool waters. The official track forecast is a little to the north and slightly slower than the previous one after 72 hours. The hurricane is forecast to maintain its strength for about a day while it remains over warm water and in an environment of decreasing shear. Steady weakening is anticipated beyond that time, however, when Andres moves over progressively cooler water and into a much more stable air mass. The official intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is in good agreement with the intensity model consensus. The 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii were expanded on the east side of the circulation based on a 1650 UTC ASCAT-B pass. The 12-ft sea radii were also expanded based on a recent altimeter pass that showed sea heights as high as 28 ft. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 14.8N 116.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 15.4N 117.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 15.9N 118.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 16.3N 119.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 16.9N 121.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 18.5N 124.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 19.5N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 19.5N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Hurricane ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)
2015-05-30 22:36:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CATEGORY 2 ANDRES CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat May 30 the center of ANDRES was located near 14.8, -116.3 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane ANDRES Public Advisory Number 11
2015-05-30 22:36:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 302036 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015 ...CATEGORY 2 ANDRES CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 116.3W ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Andres was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 116.3 West. Andres is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected for the remainder of today, but a gradual weakening should begin on Sunday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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